Leading Change Leads the Charge - Travers Stakes 2026
When I retired from TechTarget, I had a nice goodbye talk
with CEO Mike Cotoia.
“Do you have any hobbies, Jack?”
“I’m a horse player,” I said.
And he kind of looked at me and shook his head slightly
while pinching a sly smile.
I guess imaginary sports writer is another but related hobby of
mine.
--------------
The Travers Stakes in Saratoga, N.Y. has always had a special place on our
blog and at our home. We discovered horse racing when we first got cable TV
watching the local Suffolk Downs recaps every evening after coming home from
work. And we made trips to Suffolk ourselves, and twice went to Saratoga to see
the Travers AKA the Midsummer Derby – tho far from Midsummer it be.
The 1987 edition was special because we had just learned
that we were expecting, and we headed off to our planned vacation anyway,
keeping our little new cubby a secret that was all ours for maybe another week.
This was a really competitive edition of the race. Which saw
the likes of Alysheba, Bet Twice, Crypto Clearance, and Personal Ensign
defeated by Java Gold, which was ridden by Mr. Patient Pat Day. In my opinion,
rain had a lot to do with that Java Gold Victory. These others I mentioned
almost all went on to. multiple significant graded stakes victories. Java
Gold’s days on the track were quite brief.
Memorable that somebody gave us a seat in the clubhouse. Which
was welcome by my expectant wife. There at Saratoga, where The New England clam
chowder competes with the Manhattan clam chowder. This made the moment golden,
even though we did not have the selection. among our tickets, the selection of
Java Gold. I had Alysheba -if memory serves me well, she had Cryptoclearance to
place, which, ridden by Angel Cordero, truly was second under the wire.
I will turn to the DailyRacing form for the rundown on this year’s running, renewal, iteration,
staging, chapter - Boy, Google Gemini sure has a lot of synonyms! – for this type
of recreation.
The winner was Brad Cox's Leading Charge, a horse running in
only his third race. He only had two previous lifetime starts, so a lot of
punters, me included, would overlook him in the handicapping.
The horse paid $22 .. having gone off at 10-1. At post time,
Golden Tempo was the favorite and Todd Pletcher’s Jim Dandy-winning Renegade
was second favorite.
Leading Change ran by Preakness winner Napoleon Solo in deep
stretch to win the Grade One race in front of 47,659 at Saratoga. Won by half a
length. Then, a Length and three quarters behind the second place, Napoleon
Solo, was the Derby and Belmont winner Golden Temple.
The winner was ridden by Manny Franco, who took over the
mount from an injured Irad Ortiz, the rider when Leading Change won the grade
three Indiana Derby on July 11.
The horse runs for the Wathnan Racing Stable. That’s the
operation of Sheik Tamen bin Hamad Al Thani, who is the Emir of Qatar. If that don’t sound like dripping honey of
money and pedigree, I will eat my Red Sox cap.
Leading Charge is a son of Gunrunner. Who stands at stud for
$250,000. As a youngster, the winner was purchased for $800,000.
In the running of the race, the winners in the Triple Crown
series held their own, forming the trifecta with Leading Change on top. The anticipated
pace unfolded as might have been expected, except that Napoleon Solo endeavored stalwartly,
and Renegade failed to fire. I think Leading Change closed much more strongly
then TimeForm anticipated – but one could point to the Indiana Derby finish
before accepting TimeForm at face value. A 12-sec final quarter in that race was best in this field for closing.
In the running, Napoleon Solo led from the start, while pressed
around the far turn by Sea Strike. Saved ground and treated well by John
Valesquez [who replaced Paco Lopez][see Preaknesscomments.] As stated, he was caught at the end. Golden Tempo, usually
confirmed as a late runner, was surprisingly near the front runners from the
start today, and was still moving strongly coming in third. The Puma came in 3rd,
3 L behind the winner. And next was Sea Strike [destined for shorter].
Napoleon Solo’s trainer Chad Summers said he and his jockey John
Velaquez had been hoping that Leading Change would spur the pace. But "Manny
sat up on … and we just kind of took [the lead]. We ended up inside the horse.
I'd have liked to have been outside the other horse, but it's okay.”
Golden Tempo’s trainer Cheri Devaux also was pleased with
her horse's outing, the horse was running on a more than two month layoff, and
may still be able to run another big one this year. Three-year olds are still
growing. That goes for Nappy So and Leading Change too!
Analytics: I came to the race with a bias to The Puma. I was
impressed with his Florida Derby [lost by a head to Commandment] and would have
picked him in Kentucky Derby, but he scratched. Mike Beers picked him to win
today, and Andy Serling picked him 2nd.
That’s out of the way.
Here is how some of the runners lined up if you added early
and late TimeForm ratings. Not fool-proof. Winner Leading Charge comes in the
same as Emerging Market, but in race Emerging Market was a well back.
But the numbers here helped grid me for my decisions. I grant the top number to
Napolean Solo, But thought he’d be hectored. Didn’t win but ran very well.
Nappy Solo 203
The Puma 198
Emg Mkt 197
Leading Charge 197
Silent Traffic 196
Renegade 184
SeaStrike 175 early
Golden Temple 173
From the Chad Brown barn, Emerging Market seemed a value
choice. In this case, that means a gamble. “Ran on in last” is a note I made – forgetting
that usually is a sucker bet. It was today. Horse did not seem capable of
distance, or well schooled.
[See note *** about “Emerging Market” below.]
My main pick, The Puma, My main pick, he has seemed poised
for success for a long time. It was easy. Numbers decent. He was 2nd
off! Often a good angle!
The Puma ran a steady race – but had no special kick at end.
Got 4th. No speed at the start [not unexpected, butnot welcomed.] The race chart notes the horse
ran wide, fell back early, was roused on the far turn, and got even more wide on
turn for home. Kept looking at the stands during the stretch run. Didn’t seem
to see through the TV cameras that I was urging him on vociferously. Cant say
Javier Castelleno handled him great, but the horse after this doesn’t seem top
elite crème. Maybe try Grade 3s?
Looking forward: I have no idea what his true distance is,
or if he will meet a field weak enough to beat. Face it when you are
emotionally indebted. Face it, then run away from it.- Baruch Bernard
Mystical Scratchpad of numbers.
In the Running per Chart
Table of Paths
LEADING
CHANGE
Conceded the front to Napoleon
solo; Raced along the inside through the first turn and then just off the
inside down the backstretch tracking leader in close range; tucked inside
through the far turn T tipping back once more to be just off the inside;
angled 4 then three wide into upper stretch
NAPOLEON
SOLO
Raced 4 paths off the rail
narrowly seize the front tugging briefly to the two path we're heading back 3
paths off the rail down the backstretch talk to the two path in the far turn
remain patiently handled under hounding from sea strike nailed in the final
strides to the wire
THE PUMA
Was tipping 4 paths off the
rail down the backstretch 4 wide through the far turn angled 6 wide into
upper stretch lugged in a furlong from home and kept on to the finish
I thought this was interesting
*** C. couldn’t bet for Emerging Market because “that’s a
terrible name”. Let’s face it is.
Chad Brown runs horses for some big time big wig from
Wall St who relished the most pointless technology and financial names for his
steeds. Win or lose he has all the class of his uncaring class, the one depicted
in Wall Street Shuffle by
10cc. For more about financial matters, go to Epitomigm's Financial Markets' Channel.
Comments