Epicenter in the 2022 Travers

 

The Travers Stakes or MidSummer Derby has always marked time passing - good times. We attended the race in 1987 (won by Java Gold) and 1985 (won by Chief’s Crown) (or 1986 (won by Wise Times)).

Let’s take a look at what is up in a race that had its first running in 1864.

Along with others, today’s running matches the winners of the Derby, Preakness and Whitney Stakes. Two of the horses (Chad Brown’s Zanon and Steve Asmussen’s Epicenter) dramatically ran neck and neck in portions of some of those races. The only horse that has won at today’s distance is Rich Strike, the improbably eligible horse that got into the Derby on a very late scratch, tracked a field chasing a hot pace, took the inside, and startled Zanon and Epicenter to come up and win the Derby at 80 to 1.

Let’s look at today’s runners.

Rich Strike is considered a fluke by racing cognoscenti. Few expect a repeat. He finished up the track in the Belmont.

A Derby also ran – but a strong finishing winner of July’s Haskell Stakes – is Cyberknife. This horse is the wise guy’s horse. It’s trainer, Brad Cox, won this running last year with

Epicenter has run consistently and determinedly, hitting the board in the Derby and Preakness, and winning the Whitney. Able trainer in Asmussen. Capable jockey in Joel Rosario. Horse described as a “versatile sort.” It’s been a long campaign. 

This brings us to the bevy of equines launched by trainer Chad Brown, the extremely accomplished son of Saratoga. Apprentice to the great trainer Bobby Frankel. He trains and runs horses selectively to perfection, and it is not uncommon for his steeds to fill out the exacta in a stakes race. Turf racing is his specialty. He has yet to win the Travers, so that would make a good story. Fielding Artorius, Early Voting and Zandon, gives him three chances this time.  

Artorius is a lightly raced son of Arrogate. Arrogate holds the Travers record at 1:59:36. (I’d take salt when clocking any Bob Baffert horse, but I must say Arrogate was of the most striking physique of a horse in my recollection.) Lightly raced means 3 races - he has only won a maiden and an ungraded stakes. Atorius is ridden by the hell-bent-for-leather Irad Ortiz, who leads the jockey standings at this meet, and who will soon be enjoying a 3-day suspension for rough riding. Artorious is the Wise Guy’s Wise Guy’s horse!

Early Voting. Won the Preakness. Has early speed (if he is not in the early pace picture, this race will not play to form). Brown has to have a strategy for each of his three owners. His guidance to Jose Ortiz, Irad’s brother, could be a crucial factor.

Zandon. My horse in the Derby. Coming out of the East. “A consistent sort” that has been passed by Epicenter consistently. In the Whitney, I wondered if Zandon could ever get past Assumen’s horse. The horse is familiar to rider Flavien Prat, who is onboard for the fourth time. A question I have is does Zanon just enjoy running with Epicenter, or does he dearly want to pass him?

Also running but rank outsiders are Aint Life Grand and Gilded Age. Tho the latter less so; he comes from the barn of hall of fame trainer Bill Mott. Having recently seen the biggest rank outsider of all time (Rich Strike) come from the clouds, more than a few punters will back one of these contestants, no doubt.  

Saratoga can be muggy, tho today is forecast mild, while the Travers draws a very large loud crowd, and one should watch the horses in the post parade.

 

The most typical bettors’ downfall is to fall for “the Story”. The Story is labelled “the Narrative Fallacy” by Nobel winner Daniel Kahneman. Defined as “Putting circumstances into a logical order so you can process it more easily.” I’m here to have fun, and I am going to go with The Story, however, and put together a ticket variously packed with Brown’s runners. Worry not: I wont bet the farm. Whoever wins, it will be a Story for someone.

 

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The race result: Epicenter (at even money) – Over Cyberknife – Over Zandon..

The summary: Consistency, great training, good jock won –

The running: as Early Voting seemed to lag from start, making one feint move, the leadership fell to Cyberknife which vied to gain lead, rather than making one big move. Cyberknife had trouble with the distance tho held gamely for 2^nd. Zandon kind of meandered to pick up 3rd. And Artorius looked to be running in the wrong class. The big steady move was Epicenter’s, whose record now is one of the most impressive for a 3 year old in recent years.