The Midsummer Derby – 2023 – Archangelo and a rainbow
i.
It's not a large field but it's one of the most interesting -
it's the Travers Stakes, which pits the winner of the Kentucky Derby [Mage]
against the winner of the Preakness [National Treasure] against the winner of
the Belmont [Arcangelo]. But more. There's the scratched morning line Derby Day
favorite Forte - the favorite in this race, coming up with victory in the recent
Jim Dandy.
And more: Tapit Trice, who competed in the Derby, Belmont
and Haskell. Also on the docket is Disarm which finished fourth in the Derby
and the Jim Dandy. Plus Scotland, winner of the Curlin at Saratoga on July 21.
Pace makes the race, and there is argument between the pace
raters as to whether National Treasure or Scotland will take the lead on the
backstretch. This is a very key question in reaching a forecast for the event.
National Treasure had an easy lead in the Preakness and lead
from gate to wire. Can he do that again? Scotland, still a bit unschooled, took
the lead at a much faster clip in its last outing, before stepping away easily,
and winning by a revved down three lengths. Will they hook up and if they do
will one or both crumble? Much is in the hands of their able jockeys - John
Velazquez on National Treasure and Junior Alvarado on Scotland.
Forte was the two-year-old champ and just barely won the Jim
Dandy in the slop. In this sport, just barely winning counts as winning. [We
dined across from his owner and trainer 30 days ago. Gawk!] Will the race disclose
that Forte is coming to best form? Notable it is that he ran pretty well on
sloppy surface, which could be the description for the course today. Archangelo
and Disarm have similarly shown capability on the off track.
What can be said about Scotland is that he's stepping up to
bigger company than he's been in before. He's improving, and blooming, much as
Arcangelo had coming into his Belmont victory. Scotland a very hot work this
week. Which is impressive. Also a little worrisome if you are concerned he may
have left his race on the practice field. People tend to dismiss this assertion,
as Scotland is guided by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Worth noting: the
field’s trainers divide into highly accomplished [Mott with Scotland, Bob Baffert
with National Treasure, Todd Pletcher with Tapit Thrice and Forte, Steve
Assmussen with Disarm] Hall of Famers and the rest - potentially up and coming
trainers. These are Jena Antonoucci [Archangelo] and Gustavo DelGado [Mage].
Disarm is the wise guy’s horse, with steady high Beyer
numbers, and knocking at the door. Ahead of the race, the field appears to be
pretty evenly matched, with only small factors available that might help obtain
a reasonable prediction.
I centered my betting strategy around Archangelo and Mage. The
Belmont and Derby are particularly difficult races, and victors should get
credit. Distance remains a question late in the summer for 3 year olds, and the
Belmont and Derby victories say something about distance for these steeds.
The question with Archangelo is whether his lay-off since
the Belmont is too long to prepare him for today’s event. For Mage, the
question to answer is whether his last outing at the Haskell was genuine clunker
or a good walk in the park warmup for today’s race. Admittedly, the recent
history is that horses that passed or failed those Triple Crown test won the
Travers. What makes this race of such note is that Triple Crown talent is about
to be tested.
ii.
They broke fairly evenly with some mild jostling. The
buffeting resulted in Archangelo briefly being quite near the lead on the first
turn, but soon National and Treasure vied and gained that lead, along with
lurking Tapit Thrice, while Forte mysteriously receded to last, coming on again
to gain 4th. Mage was raucous at the opening, regressed, in the end finishing
last. Archangelo's jock was sitting on a lot of horse.
There was tension as the horses traversed the backstretch and then the wide final turn. Archangelo swung four to five wide into the upperstretch and
began to rally. Under able Javier Castellano, the Belmont winner took command
and held safe as he ‘kept to the task’ [From the Chart], adding the Travers to
his roster of victories. Disarm made a somewhat
challenging late run - but it was not enough to catch the winner.
…
Today’s card was marked by yet another tragic breakdown in
the stretch, as New York Thunder fell at the 16th pole in the Allen
Jerkens Memorial (G1) for 3-year-old sprinters. Officials continued to inspect
the track into the evening.
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