Napoleon Solo nabs 2026 Preakness at Laurel Park
My hero (above) - The Preakness Stakes arrived this year with not a
lot of build up. There is a one-year sojourn from Pimlico for the Preakness. It was held at Laurel Park, which called for a new contour for
the 1 3/16th mile distance. The home stretch seemed long. The field of contestants generally is a bit lackluster.
Derby winner Golden Tempo, passed it up. Like last year’s
Derby Winner Sovereignty, the horse is skipping the second jewel in the Triple
Crown and targeting the Belmont Stakes set
for Saratoga [Belmont’s re-build is still uncompleted.]
Guess at the pace: A quick view would place trainer Chad Summer trained 2025 Champagne winner Napoleon Solo [8-1] out front running with the speedy Maryland-bred Taj Mahal [2-1] and Chad Brown’s [4-1] Iron Honor and others near at hand.
Coming up late down the stretch one would predict would be a cavalcade of ambitious placements, some with mostly moderated success from the lesser ranks of US tracks. These would likely be led by Ocelli, he of a good third in the Kentucky Derby just two weeks prior, Chip Honcho [5th in the Louisiana Derby.] and others
Let’s look at the pro/con on three runners! Hello Gemini?!
Horse 10: Napoleon Solo (8-1)
- Pros:
Exceptional Back-Form: Won the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes over a mile. His
top juvenile form yielded a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, which matches the
highest proven speed capacity in this entire Preakness field. Wicked
Early Foot: He possesses a massive TimeformUS Early pace rating of
133, and is ridden by veteran Paco Lopez.
- Cons:
He enters here trying to bounce back from a career-low speed figure
in the Wood Memorial, where he faltered badly on the lead. With a Late pace rating of just 68,
stretching out an extra half-furlong to 1 3/16 miles is a major hurdle if
he faces constant pressure
Horse 1: Taj Mahal (5-1)
- Pros:
Perfect Record at Laurel: He is undefeated over this specific dirt
track, going a perfect 3-for-3 in his career. Top Form / Track
Provenance: He enters off an ultra-impressive, front-running victory
just four weeks ago in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel. He owns a peak Beyer Speed Figure of 92.
- Cons:
Class Question: Tho an offspring of Derby winner Nyquist, this race
marks his graded stakes debut, stepping up significantly into a Grade 1
environment. Pace
Pressure: His TimeformUS Early pace rating is a very high 119. Because
his last two wins were gate-to-wire, he risks getting cooked early in a
field heavily loaded with other gate speed.
Horse 7: The Hell We Did (15-1)
- This is kind of offbeat. The Hell We Did caught my fancy as a late runner. This was premised on the false assumption that Napoleon Solo would tire, melt, fail at the distance. But he was a bit of what they call a wise guy horse. Broke my rule to somewhat blindly rely on an experts long-shot pick – that being my favorite, Mike Beers. Seldom works as you will see below. In short, I could not confidently pick a winner and I took a flyer!
- Pros: Proven Against Stakes Class: He comes off a solid, runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Sharp Prior Form: Prior to the Lexington, he fired an eye-catching allowance victory at Sunland Park. Tactical Placement: He possesses a strong TimeformUS Early pace figure of 103 , but he is entirely capable of stalking or coming slightly off the pace rather than demanding the absolute lead. Competitive Figures: Matches the top speed capabilities here with a lifetime best 92 Beyer Speed Figure.
- Cons: Stamina Concerns: His dam was an exceptional sprinter whose maximum distance capability capped out at 1 mile, meaning the added 1 3/16 miles distance of the Preakness is a significant question mark. He possesses a very low TimeformUS Late pace rating of 59. I thought they made a mistake in calculation, but it was probably me. I had to go to summer school for algebra.
Now, when one figure/performance clue seems to stick out
after the fact, you tend to bet it over
and over for a while, and to no avail, thus feeding the pockets of shrewder
players. So look out for me next week! Given the caveat that this may not be pertinent: I will point out that adding Napoleon Solo’s Early
and Late Time Form numbers together set him as the top horse overall, which is how it
turned out.
If one wants an ultra-aggressive writer, Paco Lopez is usually a good choice there. The shorter the race the better that works. I tend to fade him. His rough riding has caused track spills, and he’s drawn serious criticism from fellow jockeys, not to mention stewards, as a result. He ran Napoleon Solo at top speed in the Wood – how did that work out? The horse wore himself out. This punter expected something similar in this one.
But the ride was quite measured. Track man’s chart notes the
horse was well rated on the back stretch. Lopez let Napoleon Solo track Taj Mahal,
and it worked out. Maybe it’s a new day for Paco. Also for Napoleon Solo, who’s Champagne backclass shown brightly. With
Napoleon Solo, a good bettors' strategy would have been
-in retrospect, of course – to “throw out the last one” [meaning his
subpar performance in a typically lukewarm Wood Memorial].
Home town hero Taj Mahal was over-bet. You could also add that
the Federico Tesio Stakes has not produced a Derby winner in the past. But don’t
cry for Federico Tesio the man, tho he did not win a Kentucky Derby either. Tesio the lineage genius, the horse breeder. Tesio bred and trained 22 winners
of the Derby Italiano, 22 winners of the Gran Premio di Milano,
and 11 winners of the Oaks d'Italia.
Just a note: Epitomime is a blog. An experiment. A hobby. Lately, our interest in prediction has taken a walk down AI Alley, and the notes above are our re-mix of Google Gemini’s Preakness Analysis, which is based very muchly on analysis from the Daily Racing Form, The Blood Horse and others. This is done here to study prediction and Generative AI. Had a classic moment interacting with AI on this, as the software came back with a rundown including Golden Tempo – of course, that horse was not even in the race.
Said AI this Sunday morning when confronted with the error: "You are completely right, and I apologize for the hallucination in the previous breakdown. I conflated the commentary lines from other horses in the document.”
While it can create a good synopsis of others' work, it can
predict words, rather than events. And even when predicting words, it can come
up with some dillies. Well, it did
predict that Taj Mahal could be cooked by a hot pace. Hope the Federal Reserve can control conflation.
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