ItsInThePost in the San Gabriel - Honest!

Tyler Baze aboard ItsInThePost (FR)

On 6 January epiphany day at Santa Anita race track in Arcadia California, when much attention is focused on the Sham Stakes for newly minted 3 year olds,  we await the start of the Grade 2 San Gabriel Stakes at 1 1/8 mile on the turf. Most any red-blooded handicapper would get a kick out of taking a dive into the statistics that show the potential form of this race. So the analysis is on!

In terms of particular class, we have such as Flamboyant (FR) (1), a winner of $950,000, Isotherm, who has put $417,000 in the bank and ItsInThePost (FR) (8), who has won $735,000. Really, all the trainers of the combatants in this 10-horse field are top notch. In a way, it is Jerry Hollendorfer versus Richard Balthus, Carla Gaines versus Jeff Mullins, etc.

In terms of form, most of the horses have had similarly regular campaigns, and have run in the last four weeks or so - but there are a couple - Isotherm (6) and Free Rose (9) - coming off fairly long layoffs.

“Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated by any intelligent, thoughtful, determined person.” Excerpt From Superforecasting Philip E. Tetlock & Dan

Free Rose and ItsInThePost appeared to be the early speed, though Smoky Image (10) could be added to that phalanx. Less so Smoky, but they all seen pretty capable of carrying the speed. But Free Rose may be a little too fresh. ItsInThePost may have had a bit of a long campaign - but he has been off since the begging of November and, at that time, it was the Breeders Cup Turf, where he finished just 3 lengths off of as good a bunch as you will ever see (e.g., Talismanic, Beach Patrol, Highland Reel).

Those in this field are a pretty consistent lot - we don’t have a lot of time for this one so we will say "ItsInThePost" on top, with various below. The class summary, pace analysis, recency form and speed bode this way. The jockey could be important in this one, and it is fair to say that Tyler Baze has handled ItsInThePost well over some period of time. Maybe take a fly at some exactas with Free Rose on top too, as a gamble. The layoff is troubling, and his jockey, the courageous Raj Maragh, has yet to click since taking his tack to Southern California.

On the second tier of exactas? Flamboyant, Tequila Joe (5), Smoky Image, Isotherm. The latter two appearing particularly capable of placing or showing. Flamboyant has been a favorite of mine over time - he was my pick in the HolTrfCp 24 Nov - he often gets a piece, tho the running line has tended to have him angling or wide , while persevering, lately.

So what we got is 8, 9 over 1, 5, 6, 7, 10. And 8 to win on the side. A winning 100 Beyer seems possible.

This is the 71st running of the send Gabriel and I guess it's named after the San Gabriel Mountains which form such a hauntingly breathtaking backdrop to the races at Santa Anita in Arcadia, and the Rose Bowl and my darling wife's childhood home the next town over.




At the break, Smoky Image goes weirdly outside, that is keen to take the lead, with Free Rose closely involved, and ItsInThePost stalking comfortably, before making a run at it on the far turn. And the front runners variously fade. Flamboyant is coming along nicely at the end, but only to get second, with the 15-1 ML Editore (Brz) grabbing 3rd, as ItsInThePost (the 3-1 favorite) is victorious. That means two French horses were on top! Tyler said afterward he had looked at the Form and the pace set up exactly like he thought and he "rode accordingly".

The results: 8-1-2-10-6 - the $2 exacta pays $36. Beyer was 99.

Off a rest and looking to the future I think you could say both Isotherm and Free Rose made some impression. The bet was that Free Rose would surprise, but it was to turn out a gamble too far - it had been a significant layoff in fact - and it was Editore that surprised. -The Racetrack Romeo

San Gabriel Stakes 2017 chart