Manitoulin wins 2017 Hollywood Turf Cup at Delmar - Nov 24 2017
... I realized that as word of my work spread, its apparent meaning was mutating. What my research had shown was that the average expert had done little better than guessing on many of the political and economic questions I had posed. - Tedlock, Superforecasting  |
| Manitoulin wins 2017 Hollywood Turf Cup over Chicago Style. Source: ESPN |
The race stacked up as one with a fast early pace. That changed by post time, when both Prime Attraction and Infodebad would scratch. Prime Attraction went on to win the Native Diver Stakes the following day at Delmar; and racing being the blur that it is, I lost track of the fact that this promising horse was running then. The knock on him in the Turf was distance, which should have augured for the Native Dancer in the first place. Doh!
In the Turf Cup, I was looking at Flamboyant (3), Manitoulin (8) and with less enthusiasm Inordinate (9). The choices would have included both the scratches Prime Attraction and Infodebad as well. Focused on exactas and trifactas with some saver show bests.
The eventual pick here was 3-9-8
Stalker Flamboyant is a reliable hitter. An import from France that has danced a lot of dances here against some of the best, and he has bagged some big numbers. Was this his day to win? An objective eye would decide he'd run in third, because he has done that an awful lot.
It was hard to distinguish Manitoulin as either a closer or a stalker. He was stepping up but fresh. The horse has some good numbers too, was likely to benefit from choice of jockey, Mike Smith, who is at the point where he only takes mounts that he likes, but likely to struggle with the heavy pace setters out of the race.
At the end of the race as run favorite Chicago Style (1) managed to gain second. Inordinate strove but something went wrong. The poor horse finished last, pulled up on the gallup out and had to be vanned away.
The order of finish was 8-1-3-4
Now one of the most argued among many argued vagaries in horse racing is the role of the jockey in the outcome. I thought this was one of those where the presence of one of the best jockeys in Mike Smith was an important deciding factor. He stayed with a pace setter that might have lulled the field to sleep, and he pushed on just when the sleep was starting to occur. Chicago Style had a much harder tripped and missed, tho just slightly. In the embedded video below, he says he and trainer James Toner discussed the race ahead of time and decided on these tactics. When a horse gets the right trip, or recovers from obstacles that could spell a bad trip, the rider is often a big part of it.
I wont go further into this, but on the same day the Clark Handicap run at Churchill saw an important rider change - to John Velasquez, that could well have spelled the difference in what also was a close race. I liked Destin, but noted that Velasquez had opted to move to Seeking the Soul and put a side bet there that did well. (Destin was up the track.) (if i ever find it again I will add video I saw on Velasquez post Clark,)
In a following video trainer Dallas Stewart discusses some changes he has applied in training Seeking the Soul, who is grandson of Personal Ensign, over time. He discusses Seeking the Soul's spirit, which is testy, like many thoroughbreds: "He's mean but he's healthy."
"He doesn’t like the stick." Stewart continued. The day may come when the whip is done away with. It would expand the viewership of the sport, tho there would still be detractors.
Back to the Hollywood Turf Cup: This race was a regular event at the dear departed Hollywood Park, and is being carried on by the folks at Delmar. Manitoulin ran in the brown-colored silks of Darby Dan Farm, adorned over the years by the likes of Chateaugay, Proud Clarion, Little Current, and the namesake of our publisher, Proud Truth. - RaceTrack Romeo
Hollywood Turf Cup chart
Native Dancer chart
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