Nostrils, Exactas, and The Puma

 

[Sept 20 - 2026] Yesterday was a near-miss: I couldn't bring myself to take the short odds on Forever Young in the Gold Cup, which proved to be a mistake. The horse went on to set the all-time record for career earnings at $31,758,590.

My method of late revolves around respecting the favorites and studying the pace—applying different weightings to positions based on distance, checking whether the Timeform and Beyer numbers align logically, and watching for the late move as a TVG pace line might measure it.

I had the second-place finisher, Stars and Stripes, who was valiant, but I should have coupled an exacta saver bet with the prohibitive favorite. That mistake colored my betting the next day, leading to better—though still not stellar—results.

This turned out to be a successful investment: a 2/1 cold exacta and a place bet that paid $18.73. It was a near dead heat for second with Candytown, but a nose or a nostril is all that counts when you win it! Naturally, that got my gumption up for the rest of the card, leading to a bit more risk tolerance on the back of the exactas. I seem capable often enough of finding horses that finish in the top four, but I need a clearer strategy for distributing my bets across them.

There was some pain in the Parx Pennsylvania Derby as The Puma won. Good for The Puma and Javier Castellano. The Puma was my original Kentucky Derby pick who scratched, but he just didn't seem to have that final push in the Haskell or the Travers. In his post-race interview today, Javier mentioned that the horse ran well to finish where he did in the Travers, but I was still let down on The Puma. Even the best jockeys say what they say after a loss and hard to weigh. You get attached to your Derby picks, even when you try to stay objective, and then they go and surprise you!

Tell us what the future holds, so we may know that you are gods. – Isaiah 41:23 

Adding blinkers today certainly helped The Puma, as did the soft competition. Still, the horse made a great move starting at the top of the second turn. Pletcher’s Sassmaster (#9) was also valiant and landed me a saver show bet. I coupled that with 6/9 and 7/9 exactas that showed promise, but the favorite’s form held true and the exacta ultimately ended up 6/7. On second watch, Further Ado looked like he might have benefited from more ground (1 1/4 miles)—though perhaps not.

Reflection: Yesterday marked the re-opening of Belmont. Still have the big wide track. It's been pretty fair to us. Remember: The Champagne Stakes there in 1990, when we went to check out Long Island. [The traffic the following day when we drove east to Oyster Bay for ferry back to New London convinced us to not move to work with publishier CMP.

Fly So Free and Jose Santos won the Champagne for trainer Scotty Shoehoffer [sp?]. Tho the horse failed to hit the board in Kentucky Derby as second favorite the following year, his career was pretty stellar. Wins listed below:

Champagne Stakes (1990); Breeders' Cup Juvenile (1990); Hutcheson Stakes (1991); Fountain of Youth Stakes (1991);Florida Derby (1991); Jim Dandy Stakes (1991); Fall Highweight Handicap (1993)

Interesting alternative AI Generated Headlines:

Here are a few headline ideas for your handicapping recap, ranging from direct and analytical to literary:

Analytical & Direct

• Respecting the Favorites, Respecting the Pace: A Weekend at the Windows

• Near Misses and Saver Bets: Lessons from the Gold Cup and Pennsylvania Derby

• Reading the Pace Line: Top-Four Selection vs. Betting Strategy

A Bit More Voice & Flavor

• A Nose, a Nostril, and a Winner: Navigating Short Odds and Derby Ghosts

• When Derby Picks Come Back to Haunt: Gold Cup & Parx Lessons

• "Tell Us What the Future Holds": Notes on Pace, Odds, and Exotics

Short & Punchy

• Nostrils, Exactas, and The Puma

• Gold Cup Regrets & Pennsylvania Derby Surprises

• Notes from the Card: Distance, Blinkers, and Better Betting Structure