Wonderment: The distribution of the betting

 

[Sept 20 - 2026] Yesterday just missed: Couldnt take the short odds on Forever Young in the Gold Cup, which was a mistake. Horse went took the record for most $ Winnings [$31,758,590] of all time.

The method of late revolves around respecting the favorite[s] and studying the pace. Applying different weights on positions based on whether the race is short or longer. Whether the TimeForm and Beyer numbers have some logic. And the late move as a TVG pace might measure it.

I had the second placer [Stars and Stirpes – who was valiant] and should have coupled a saver bet with the prohibitive favorite.

This colored my betting the next day, with better, but not stellar, result. 

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This was a successful investment. 2/1 cold exacta and 1 to place paid $18.73. It was a near dead heat for that second place [with Candytown] - BUT A NOSE OR NOSTRIL IS NOTHING IF YOU WON BY IT! Of course it got my gumption up for rest of the selections on card. A bit more risk acceptance on the back of exactas. I seem capable of finding horses that are in the top 4. But I need a guide on distributing the betting on these.

Some pain in the Parx Penn Derby as The Puma won. Good for The Puma and Javier Castellano. The Puma was my Kentucky Derby Horse that scratched. He just didn’t seem to have the last push in the Haskell and the Travers. In interview after winning today, Javier said he ran well to finish in the Travers. But I was let down. You get attached to your Derby pick. Have to be 'objective'. Then the surprise you!

Tell us what the future holds, so we may know that you are gods. – Isaiah 41:23 

Adding blinkers today helped – the thin competition too. But the horse sure made a great move starting at the top of the second turn. Pletchers’ Sassmaster [#9] was also valiant - got a saver show for me. Coupled with Exactas of 6/9 and 7/9 that had promise. But the favorites’ form played true to the exacta ended up as 6/7. On second watch Further Ado looked like more ground might have helped him [1 1/4] – but maybe not.

Yesterday marked the re-opening of Belmont. Still have the big wide track. It's been pretty fair to us. Remember: The Champagne Stakes there in 1990, when we went to check out Long Island. Fly So Free and Jose Santos won. Tho the horse failed to hit the board in Kentucky Derby as second favorite, his career was pretty stellar. Wins listed below:

Champagne Stakes (1990); Breeders' Cup Juvenile (1990); Hutcheson Stakes (1991); Fountain of Youth Stakes (1991);Florida Derby (1991); Jim Dandy Stakes (1991); Fall Highweight Handicap (1993)