Reviewing methodology
Catching up on a basic quick method of handicapping. Quick, but it takes at least 25 minutes.
You need at least some basic information. Some past
performance. Some speed numbers. Some pace info.
First is pace. Early speed important. Will their be speed
duel? What does the morning line say about expectations on those duelists?
Who are the best anticipated contenders according to morning
line? Which are the leading jockeys in the contest? How much ground will any of
the others have to pickup? Are there good stayers?
Give early speed figure horses more credit in sprints. [IN THE ABOVE SAMPLE, HILLERITO'S EARLY SPEED WAS WHAT IT TOOK TO BEAT THE BUNCH HE MET AFTER SCRATCHES.]
Give mid- or late-runners
more credit in route races.
Which runners look capable of contending at the end? What final quarter times did they do last out? What do comment lines tell about their finish?
Are they coming off a layoff, or are one or two races into a new form cycle. If so, how does trainer usually do in such situations. If a layoff, how do the works look?
How beatable is the favorite at this level? What do the favored handicappers say - are you with them or against them - how are they doing today?
RELATED
A horse that has become accustomed to a more relaxed, sustained pace in a route race may find it difficult to handle the blistering early speed required for a 6-furlong sprint ... a successful cutback to 6 furlongs is not a given. It requires a horse with a specific set of attributes—most importantly, natural speed—that can be brought to the forefront by a change in distance. -G. Gemini
https://gemini.google.com/app/180bb1dfbd6da356
Shorter races usually have faster fractions, and Thoroughbreds, especially older ones, have a way of becoming one-dimensional in their running styles. A racehorse that has adopted a pace-pressing style going seven furlongs isn’t likely to be as close early when it’s asked to run six. - Andy Platner, American Turf
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