Formalizing decision rules and assumptions for prediction
This method is not heavy on risk. And it's ended for Stakes and OC Allowances. At 5.5F, 6F, 7F or 1 Mile. At a handful of tracks. For the horse player simply content to pay for his hobby. Tools are past performances [horse speed at calls], pace projections [early and late and both together] [final stage closing estimates], recent replays. Success in both the Belmont Stakes and the Acorn caused me to sit down and enumerate - that, and a refresher reading of a great book on prediction. -B.B.
Focus on contenders using morning lines as rough guide.
Look at the pace projection. Is there a clear front runner?
Is there a potential speed duel?
Should one of the duelers or both be likely to fade?
If so, are there stalkers or late runners that can benefit?
-----
Has the favorite
become an odds-on favorite?
How likely is that horse to win?
----
How is the trainer doing? How is the jockey doing?
How does the trainer do in these circumstances?
-----
How have horses faired in last?
Does the final quarter disclose it?
Is their evidence in the comment line?
Are they likely to fall far off the pace?
Are they likely to need a more than a reasonable closing
momentum?
 |
| TimeForm |
How do horses fit in class?
Stepping up/stepping down?
Have they been proven at this level?
----------
How are their Beyers [or other] numbers?
Are they consistent?
Are they trending up?
Are they competitive numbers?
-----
Have they won at distance?
Have they won at track?
If weather is issue, have they shown themselves capable in such weather or on
such surface?
----
Have you been impressed by their performance at any point?
Comments