Locked in the Cigar Mile - Last of the Year - Bonds Market Still A'Broil

 

The Cigar Mile at Aqueduct is noted here as no longer a Grade 1 but it remains significant. Punters had special interest in horses recently run in the Breeders Cup. But there were others of interest in the field as well.

Mulliken, Senior Buschador, and Post Time all vied in the DelMar BC events. Post Time attracted the wise guys money today. Yet it was Locked that, trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by Johnny Velasquez, both of whom have one this race numerously, emerged as the favorite and won, while Mulliken came in second, and Post Time placed third. Locked paid 6.30||3.30||2.60

Ahead of time, I found the horses hard to separate, and took a wildly long shot to place. That is Nelson Avenue, second in the 49er. But which seemed outclassed and out of gas today. I had just recovered from a sickening trait - always fading Pletcher! But couldn't see my way to Locked today, given his limited running. 

Locked hit the board in the 2023 Breeders Cup Juvenile for two-year-olds, but as it began the following year on the Derby trail encountered leg problems, and was scratched from the Fountain of Youth. Locked didn’t return until October, to run in an $80k Optional Claimer. Locked won that by 7 lengths, but the Cigar was a step up.

The crowd was wise to bet on Locked, as his past record and works justified his readiness to return to the top spot. A look at his Workouts, in retrospect, showed a horse masterly trained and ready ready ready to rocknroll.

 A look at the WORKS shows a steady approach to prepping for this one. Click to enlarge

That's the way it goes.  Baruch thinks the Cigar Mile marks the end of the racing season, which surprises many people. Normal people can't believe racing continues into December and January. Punters can't believe there is a day like Christmas, where they can't bet. B.B.

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Looking back – what did we learn or unlearnthis year?

Placing bets on both Win and Show increases chances of winning something. But the hedged bet payoff is reduced. And the end result this year trailed last year’s results.

The specific level of the race is important and hitting the board at the same level contested today is a valid metric.

Consider the Story you cotton to today, and remind yourself of the Story Falacy. That is: a cognitive bias that refers to our tendency to create a coherent narrative or story out of a sequence of events, even when there may be no logical connection between them. Remember too: Each bet is an independent event, meaning the outcome of one bet does not affect the outcome of the next. This is known as the gambler’s fallacy.

Sidebets paid off as hedges in the Derby. Other times: Just goodbye bucks.

The “Belmont at Saratoga” is unbettable, as is the Breeders Cup on a limited budget.

“Good in Canada – Could step-up for hot barn” didn’t work.

Start with the pace, stay inside the method, don’t be afraid to i.d. a horse at short price that is more likely than not.

The idea of a “last key race” is a improper fixation along the lines of those admonitions above.  I fear we are not stripping down to true basics, but are instead jettisoning any possibilities!

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“Speculation is an effort to turn a little money into a lot. Investment is an effort to prevent a lot of money from becoming a little.” -Fred Schwed Jr.

The Season is over ... but the race is on! >>>

Finally, let's look at the stock market.

Signs of weakening inflation could boost the odds of a January rate cut, while persistent inflation may prompt caution among Federal Reserve policymakers. As the economy navigates these mixed signals, both labor and inflation data will play pivotal roles in shaping the Fed’s decisions in the weeks ahead. 

- Reuters.