DRF's 2024 Breeders' Cup Webinar with Andrew Beyer, Steven Crist, and Br...

Veteran predictors usually keep half-an-eye on other predictors. So, there is no surprise that the ranks of handicappers tune-in Breeders Cup Week to see what DRF’s Brad Free, Andy Beyers [emetrius] and Steve Crist [emetrius] punters have to say about the Breeders Cup outlook.

What do they do? They mention a lot of horses. They find some but not complete consensus on horses. And always seem to be wrong. But the process – their machinations – is informative. Except for Brad Free – he is so much like a good doctor that he seems believable. That’s too dangerous!

When I looked back at this year’s prognostications and the end result I found to some surprise that they weren’t too far off. 

Among the horse name droppings of Beyer and Crist [shown with Win payoffs] were:

Soul of Angel $41.60

Moira $13.60

Straight No Chaser $14.20

More than Looks $15.80

A $10 bet in those four instances would garner $930 return. Successful exactas there would take on another $890. A good day at the track! 

Moira – Canada horse of the year – and Straight No Chaser – named after Thelonius Monk song [and his libation of choice] were two that were on my list of selections – but I didn’t take the plunge on either. And I shaded Torpedo Anna and Rebels Romance, which was bad analysis in the running

Meta views: This year the memes “the Europeans are better” and “the Japanese are up and coming” did not play out. A meme that failed for me was take: Buick and Moore on Appleby and Aidan. [Buick did actually hit on one, Rebels Romance, but it just wasn’t a trend.] Or, Detorrio must go out with a swan song. Or Irad is going to wipe them out. Or Next is undefeated.  Or Pyrenes was close in last.

There actually weren’t that many sure things… which made for good odds. Betting against Cogburn worked (if you picked Soul of Angel). But betting vs. Torpedo Anna or Rebels Romance bought you sack o woe. 

For my part, the Breeders Cup is still a bridge too far. So many good names to go through. Society was my only horse to hit the board! [a second] There are too many races with too many variables. The variable stew must be reduced. And not diverted by fun hunch bets on familiar favorites. Playing a card is an art in of itself.

I remember Crist from his days as New York Times Racing beat reporter, and his appearances on Harvey Pack’s weekly show. Great mind for the game. Of course, Beyer is The Doyen. Funny connection here: Beyer mentioned “he wasn’t going to lose another dollar betting on Sierra Leone.” Boy that is how I felt exactly. But damn if Chad Brown’s Sierra drove to the front and held at the wire over Fierceness to win The Classic. For once, Sierra did not look like Quickdraw McGraw chasing butterflies hither and yon. Meanwhile, a phalanx of 4 year old ‘greats’ looking like lumbering hippos  ground on behind. 

The feel good stories included Drayden Van Dyke returning to big time, Trainer Ned Attard of the Suffolk Downs Attard family winning with Moira, Dan Blacker  [t] winning with Strait No Chaser as ridden by John Velasquez. Flavian Prat was the only Saturday jock to win more than one [but not on any of those I picked him for]. Feel good stories don’t compensate much for a down day near the end of the season. As my old school mate used to say when conversation lagged: “Oh well…”