Storyville: Streetwise and Pound Ezra

Hello everybody! Markets are much about which way the narrative is headed. In'vestors love to distill the bewildering variables that move practices and move prices around to a single narrative.' - that in the words of James McIntosh writing in his Streetwise column for The Wall Street Journal. 

Once enough people agree on what's driving markets and the narrative can be self fulfilling. 

Until of course something interrupts a story and their narrative changes.

The markets recent history changed last October when treasuries ran up at 5%. And previously hawkish Fed officials turned dovish. And then yields took a plunging and the stock market took off as a result. 

In January, there's a new story that came to be. That as it became clear that growth was stronger than was thought. Investors expected a more solid economy. Switch said McIntosh happened as the same matter that had been good news [the economy] became bad news. What had been bad news for stocks became bad news for stocks.

My bet continues to be on sticky inflation pushing central banks to hold on rate hikes which could eventually slow the economy. For now oil stocks offer an alternative way -- but for me only in ETFs and only in a minor way - to get bet on growth and some protection on rumors of War [which is what they now call geopolitical forces] until whatever might bring the growth story to an end. 

S&P 500 Hit by Fed-Pivot Rethink and War Jitters-Bloomberg

Hot Inflation Report Derails Case for Fed June Rate Cut – WSJ

Wall Street Shudders on Signs of Unexpectedly Strong Inflation – NYT

Inflation Comes in Hot, Dashing Hopes for June Rate Cut - Barrons

On the day this is published CPI comes in high [+3.6 %vs last year] and market dives low,struggles, then rights self, but never gets over first A.M. loass. If 3.6 is that highit  is matter for conjecture..anyone who counts their pennies at the supermarket is aware of what is happening, that is businesses are trying to keep what they got in price raises. Todays action is a beginning of self-off or a healthy pruning. But that's another story. -BB