Don't count on a soft landing, Mister!

Have shared the views of Randall W. Forsyth before. The Barrons’ editor and columnist has the job most every week to make sense of what’s going on. That being the job, it is pretty difficult not to get into an ‘on the one hand-on the other hand’ groove. But he generally does a pretty good job of highlighting the issues of the moment, and putting the obligatory near-bear filter on it. He has the good sense to get on the phone and get other perspectives, too.

What had he to write as last year wound down to neutral? He turned to Felix Zulauf, a long-time and now graying Swiss consultancy head and former member of Barrons’ editorial advisory panel. The article puts the kibosh on unbridled happy ending. Don't count on a soft landing, pilgrim, warns the Swiss vet.

In the near term, what would be ideal? 1-Moderate growth, 2-easing inflation, 3-reduced rates. Like others in the end-of-year cavalcade, there is worry simply because everyone agrees this ideal is in place, or fairly possible. Zulauf sees trouble. 

I don't see drastically reduced rates. 

Friday, JP Morgan’s results showed somebody doing well, signs the economy of wealth was doing all right. Yet, tonight, international markets show some stagnation. China disinflation – which helped US imports curb inflation – now may be more trouble than as first thought. 

Meanwhile, Zulauf posits a volatile decade for world markets “where nimble traders will be rewarded over buy-and-hold investors.”

 Does Zulauf have the Zippo? Does Forsyth have the foresight? How many ways can you say ‘Time will tell’? -B.B.

"You never know what you don't know is going to happen." - Tom Barkin, Federal Reserve Bank