As the Year Turns - 2023 to 2024 - Stocks and Horses

 

Seems like there is value in continuity when it comes to reviewing predictions. In other words, ask how did people do at picking the lock of the future? The ones that hit it might be the ones you’d like to query again … although next year’s check might reveal they’d just been lucky. 

It was a good year, but it is well documented that most everyone expected a bad 2023. Looking back at last year shows us that one of our picks to quote .. The Great Ed Yardeni … hit it fairly much across the board. Another fellow that got it right, tho we could never believe him when he repeatedly warned that ‘good times were coming,’ was Tom Understated Lee ... the seer who saw that "Inflation would fall like a rock." For 2024 S&P he says 'why not up double digits?' tho he see the up times backloaded, and early going bumpy....

For grounding, here is the data on Yardeni picks and …. And his take on 2024….

He was very on on S&P picks… In the end, S&P Finished Year 2023 at 4789, up 21%, with S&P EPS at $217.

He was off in his sector picks…very ‘on’ on his S&P prediction. Well, in fact oil/energy [XLE] carried forward 2022 momentum and performed ok … until Sept. And Financials, which some thought recession and increased interest rates would help, was hit by a sort of Grey Swan [see below]

The pick of Financials in 2023 did not pan out. It was undone by a kick in the face. Silicon Valley Ban went belly up, and other banks were glanced askance We could call it a Gray Swan, because, a weekend of fear not withstanding … it seemed it might be a Black Swan.

Maybe a word on the Black Swan: The concept of the Black Swan is diffuse for some of us. What is a complete surprise that could not have foreseen? After all, Bill Gates called a Pandemic Catastrophe 10 years before COVID … …  but, sure, you can expect something like Eboli to return, in bigger exponent .. but you can’t say when. I did find it interesting that Black Swanologist Nassim Nicholas Taleb said a new normal of high interest rates [ actually, traditional rates] could act as a Black Swan, and shake out some players addicted to strategies that work in low-interest environments.

For a Great view on a variety of Expecations, see Bloomberg.

And a word on horse racing. Was on vacation from the Sport of Kings. And, tabulating year just passed. My final tab says down at about the rate of the take. So mostly pay for the hobby. But not getting rich.

So there was a Stakes at Gulfstream there. uh-huh! It was the $100,000 Abundantia Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Favoared exorbinantly was Wesley Ward's Twilight Gleaming ridden by Irad Ortiz.

I admire Wesley Ward's ability with specialty of sprint turf horses.  But their odds can be so short, and they don't always win. Twilight Gleaming like others of Wards ran at Ascot..but not very competitively and has been in a funk since (the Summer). Heck, not worth 3-5. Usually but not all the time I pick a non-Ward runner cause they are so short! Starting from that perspective I alighted upon Stone Silent [ML 10-1] [at racetime 9-2] and pretty much couldnt find a reason not to go with the hunch. Didnt give the others much of a look except in regard to pace. I would not be only horse player to see value here.

Stone Silent had run in good company at 6f..could stay with or take the early pace.. and might hold better at the race 5 f distance. The drawback was the horse didnt much win, tho he was getting some ink in some black ink races. Switching today to the barn of Brian Lynch [from Steve Asmussen] and picking up Jr. Alvarado [Venesuela] for the ride. What the heck.

If you know Baruch Bernard you know Stone Silent ran in style for this End of the Year punter. He's going to tell you about the wins! Broke well, rated nicely early, ready to cede the lead but ready to pounce. Jr wrote well! Tough sleding put us 4 wide on the turn but Stone Silent took the lead and pulled away under a drive.  Twilight Gleaming [3-wide on turn] ran somewhat similarly but somewhat more slowly.. getting third, and nearly second. But Choose Joy was second. God bless us everyone!

And finally.. I will share a list of some of the wonderful horses that gained my admiration while winning in key races during the year: 

Sibelius - In the Dubai Golden Shaeen [over worthy Switzerland, Gunnite and others]

Arcangelo - In both the Belmont and Travers stakes! My horse of the Year.

Gregory - Memorably ridden to victory by Frankie De Torrie in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot Meet. Perhaps Frankie's last run there

Echo Zulu - Winner in the Winning Colors at Churchill and the Ballerina and Honorable Miss at Saratoga. Could hardly have wished for more but to see Echo Zulu pull away as we attended the Honorable Miss....only to wish for more money to put on the great horse's nose!
Clairiere - Ogden - Danced many dances. Won Phipps Stakes and Apple Blossom Handicap

Casa Creed - Winner again this year [at 7] of the Four Star Dave, and in training as at 8 as 2024 starts.

Hoist the Gold - In the Cigar Mile 2023.

~`-=V=-`~