BlackRock Weekly Commentary Sees Recession- Notes Points to Ponder

Blackrock has a Weekly Commentary, which is lucid. Whehter you like the vision or not.

Here is a recent one!

The new playbook calls for a continuous reassessment of how much of the economic damage being generated by central banks is in the price. They are deliberately causing recessions and are unlikely to cut rates to cushion the impact. We stand ready to turn more positive as valuations get closer to reflecting economic damage – or if we think markets have enough clarity to sustainably dial up risk. But we won’t see this as the beginning of another decade-long bull market in stocks and bonds. We’re also rethinking bonds, our second theme. Fixed income finally offers attractive yield, especially in short-term government bonds and high-quality credit. But we don’t think long-term government bonds will play the role of portfolio ballast: Inflation, central banks reducing their holdings and record debt levels will lead investors to demand more compensation for holding long-term bonds, or term premium. That leads us to our third theme: living with inflation. We see inflation cooling as spending patterns normalise and energy prices ebb – but we see it persisting above targets in the coming years.

A new playbook is important because three long-term drivers of production constraints mean the new regime isn’t about to change, in our view. The first driver is aging. We see aging populations shrinking workforces and hitting growth. Second, a new world order. We think geopolitical fragmentation will lead to a rewiring of globalisation and drive up production costs while also creating mismatches in supply and demand. Third, a faster transition to net-zero carbon emissions. TO READ MORE CLICK HERE.

More on topic 
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-12-02/corporate-bonds-are-resisting-recession-anxiety