As the Year Turns

A general set of key metrics that influence investment planning are pretty well agreed upon - if you go by the end-of-year items in Barrons and other outlets. 

I will focus on two sets of prognosticatto here – that is the predictions of Ed Yardeni, president, Yardeni Research (I think he was a hand on the old Wall St Week, tho I could be off in that recollection) – and Gurav Malik, CIO, State St. Bank.

Yardeni is an optimist, expecting goodness far beyond most. [I find it hard to imagine S&P over 4000. ] Malik has a bit of the hard-boiled thing going on, as befits an officer of the staid Boston bank. Would that we could pick a half-way point twixt the two and it would happen! Still, averaging wouldn't disclose the future, as so different assets react differently to the same factor or factors. 

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We never know where we're going, but we ought to know where we are. - Howard Marks

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I'd like to point to where the two agree, but, yknow about the stopped clock that's right twice a day? Well, their could be more than one of them.

Scary 'tis to look back at the failed hopes once held for 2022. You can talk about reshoring, Covid supply chains, transitory inflation or near-at-hand recession - but nothing seems more crucial in guessing next year finances than War in Ukraine and - reading today's paper ("Russia’s Oil Ban Accelerates Shift in Global Energy Flows" "Xi plans Moscow Visit", etc.) and a war bog a' looming.

 

	Ed Yardeni View
YE 2023 S&P Target – 4000 S&P 2023 EPS - $225 2023 US Real GDP Grwth 0.4% Core Inflation  - 3.0% YE Fed Funds Target Range 4.25 - 4.50% Overweight: Energy, Financials, Utilities Underweight: Comm Services, Real Estate, Tech	YE 2023 S&P Target – 4800 S&P 2023 EPS - $225 2023 US Real GDP Grwth 2.0% Core Inflation  - 3.0% YE Fed Funds Target Range 3.75 - 4.00% Overweight: Energy, Financials, Industrials Underweight: Consumer Staples, Healthcare  What's highlighted? Areas where I agree.
Favorite movie: The Maltese Bippy	Favorite movie: Sleepless in Seatle
Favorite Sport Team: Harlem Globetrotters	Favorite team: Madison Muskies

 And a word from Capt Hindsight - John Auters, Bloomberg - If rates are as high or higher in 12 months time, that’s going to create real problems — but will they really be? That requires getting the inflation call right. That in turn requires some view of the resolution to the Ukraine conflict, and on China’s chances of reopening smoothly. If you’re not sure on any of these, it’s best to hedge your bets and resign yourself to leaving money on the table. We can’t all make profits to match like Hindsight Capital — and as ever, they refuse to tell me their trades for next year. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-12-29/perfect-trades-from-tesla-to-turkey-with-hindsight-capital-in-2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-12-30/hindsight-capital-weed-and-truss-went-up-in-smoke-in-2022