Breeders Cup Stakes 2021 - End of the season

Aloha West endeavors past Dr. Shivle,
to win by half-a-nose.

[November 7, 2021 - La Jolla, Calif.] - The Breeders Cup in my opinion was a little muted this year in that the 3 year olds were not outstanding. Or more subjectively, didn't inspire me. Same goes for the older dirt horses. For that matter, US turf horses did not stand out much this year either. On the year  I focused more on allowance and optional claimer races, with pretty good results. 

Stakes races can be hard to judge, especially the Breeders stakes, featuring as they do foreign horses with whom I am unfamiliar. In an exciting first, Japanese horses won two of the Saturday races this year, further confounding the view. On Saturday, I selectively took on the F&M Sprint (Race 4); Turf Sprint (Race 5); the Dirt Sprint (Race 8); and the Turf Mile. Taking on all the races, including the big ones that just didn't resonate, was not the choice I made.

Fillies and Mares Sprint Race 4

This was what you call a hunch, as Ce Ce (about 6-1 at post time) is the name of an old close friend. The Mike McCarthy horse was a trier who often comes up short, and who might be ready for duties other than running. A beautiful stalking/late running chestnut mare with consistent numbers.  Comes up short, did you say? Actually, Jack, she was 3 for 5 this year up to this race. Could Gamine (the ignoble Bob Baffert's unbeatable - the 'best bet' of many -- favorite) be beat? Would Gamine in fact face pressure from two other runners until she wilted? Would this set it up for a spirited run on the outside from Ce Ce? The answer was yes. Putting less than a lot of thought into it worked.  Win $30.

The Dirt Sprint Race 5

As often is the case in dirt and turf sprint story lines, it is Wesley Ward trainees that looked the best, both in flesh and on paper. Of his entries, Golden Pal (ML 7-2) looked much the best, having won the juvenile sprint last year. Verifiably fast and forward runner. Tho lightly raced, he came in off a win at Keenland. Ward was an east coast jockey for a time back in the day - in the days when I first followed the horses. Tho still young, now he is a storied Kentucky trainer. He takes his horses to run in Europe with enthusiasm. I have booked with his horses - most memorable was Undrafted, owned by Wes Welker --  but I have lost betting on him too. Ward's story is he is a specialist. And that it's hard to bet against him. But uncertainty is always there, because he doesn't win all the time. No, in 2021 in fact, he is only winning at a 29% clip. That in this sport qualifies as spectacular clip.

But my hopes settled upon two horses well placed in their recent runs at Kentucky Downs – those being  Rusty Arnold’s late running  Gear Jockey (5-1) and Joe Sharp’s Fast Boat (12-1). Both were pretty tempting odds, Fast Boat, less accomplished but close on occasion to Gear Jockey. My lingering uncertainty revolved around a bias for speed at Delmar, some of it due to the very short stretch. Kentucky Downs being a odd track, I sometimes ignore runners that scored there. But today I was just utterly impressed by that earlier run on the undulating Kentucky Downs hills, faster as the race progressed, stoutly Gear Jockey persevered, evincing fresh form, gaining a 106 Beyer (tops of contenders here). That was the story that I took to the window, with a side bet that Fast Boat would tag along again or even do better.

The late runner is most exciting in my opinion, and that can skew your judgement. Being on the lead is hard to beat. In any case, late running in a Sprint is particularly dicey. In this case, the fine points were moot as Golden Pal under Irad Ortiz shot out of the gate like a rocket and was never headed. GEAR JOCKEY contended between foes, came four wide to make a mild bid but then faded, and was 6th among the 12 runners. The last outing might have been the time. Fast Boat was slow ... and last.

A 5F sprint with 12 horses is the kind of thing I have avoided as it can be a pinball race as so many horses vie over such short ground. Again, all moot today as Golden Pal burst forward on cue. Horse player Eddie Olczyk, like me, picked Gear Jockey. How brave but what a tough day he and Matt Bernier had, picking loser after loser for the TV audience. Lose $20.

The Turf Mile - Race 6

The Mile has always seemed the fairest, truest distance to me. That is: it’s runners are most likely to play to form. I just pass on the Europeans which have no speed numbers or post data available to speak of. And on the Turf Mile that tends often to be a problem, and more so this year when US turf milers have not exactly excelled. Euro import Space Blues  is the 3-1 morning-line favorite for the Mile – much due to an exceptional run Prix de la Foret (G1) at Paris Longchamp on Arc day. 

The Turf story in most American races is about Chad Brown runners, if you like or don’t like one or the other or both. Something of a war horse for Brown at this point is Raging Bull which has come west for Brown in the past to win at this very track before in the 2018 Hollywood Derby (G1).  The horse won the Maker’s Mark Mile at Keenland earlier this year. But I’ve seen him lose three others this year and was not smit. Too, his competition from the local pool did not seem daunting to me. Raging Bull's stablemate, the mare Blowout, winner last out at Keenland in Grade 1 First Lady was my runner of choice today – and t’was all about the numbers – a highest of all 103 in that last one, and what I imagined was the penultimate one is a logically ascending trajectory. The graphed numbers looked good to me for Got Stormy too. At 6, and making her third Breeders' Cup appearance, Got Stormy is in form and has greater earnings than any other of today’s contestants too. 

In the running the pace was made by California’s Smooth Like Straight, with Space Blues attending. Raging Bull was bumped early got to the rail and then just grinded along. Blowout was close and had a chance entering the stretch, met traffic, was steadied, and didn’t mount another charge. Got Stormy spent energy early, without heading rivals, and flattened on Del Mar’s short stretch. Space Traveller won the day. Lose $20.

 the Dirt Sprint (Race 8)

All the analysts pretty uniformly believed Jackie’s Warrior (6-5) was a single here. Won many at good clip. As fast a horse as you’d want to find in a printer. But it’s a sprint after all and there was fair agreement as well that Following Sea, Dr. Shivley, others could and would go at the leader. And they did. This gave some benefit to a closer. Pushed on the left and on the right, the unbeatable Jackie faded, and Dr Shively was about to score the score of his life when another horse did just that. Twas a horse I’d watch run with increasing gusto  all year that was Aloha Heart, which just missed in last, but which was coming on dramatically, which ran at much higher odds today. Aloha West could have pinged in my brain cells especially because I myself am Son of Oahu. Won $40.

So I have to got to run to the packy for cigs so I will just say Yea, I lost the Mile by about that much. A Euro stole my homework! Lost $20. But Up $10 on the day. More than enough to pay for the Racing Form! Next year, in Leverage!

Slow Stochastics: Emerging from the thread here I see an inclination to go for veteran trainers that are slight step below the top. Inclination to try the boundaries; that is, to take a heuristic like 'dont trust Kentucky Runnings' and go in opposite direction. To try to undo a bias such as go against Chad. An inclination to weigh a high recent number. To pick horses with names that resonate in some echo chamber of past escapades. To opt in on long shots that ran close to logical 1st or 2nd choices are also a honey trap for my decisioning, to no usual avail. Also a loss-welcoming inclination to toss off shore invaders!

It's not the end of the season. The birds have not alit, and the snows are still at bey. The Artie Shiller, the Bessarabian, Cigar Mile and the Clark lie ahead. It's not the end of the season but it is. - B. Bernard

You build the best possible story from the information available to you, and if it's a good story you believe it. - Daniel Kahneman