When your sitting back in your rose pink Cadillac

RUNUP

Football great Wes Welker shares winnings at 2014 Kentucky Derby.

When your sitting back in your rose pink Cadillac
Making bets on Kentucky Derby Day
I'll be in my basement room with a needle and a spoon
And another girl to take my pain away. - Jagger and Richards

[UPDATED*] - The Derby preps were kind of uneventful…in that horses took turns running well - then failing. I liked Chug McGaughey’s charge, Greatest Honor, cause he looked like other horses I liked. He flamed out on the Derby trail. I liked Jimmy Jenkins’ once overlooked Weyburn (which put me up for Q1 when winning the Gotham), but he may be being aimed for the Belmont.

The most consistent and highly touted is probably ESSENTIAL QUALITY, the two-year-old champ, and prohibitive favorite. 

Price particularly prohibitive because Houston’s Great Promotor Mattress Mac has told the world he is putting a million dollars on the horse (his mattress customers get free mattresses, etc.), affecting the odds dramatically. Essential Quality won the Bluegrass, the Southwest and at two won the Breeders Cup Futurity. This is a Brad Cox horse. I am against horses of Bob Baffert and Brad Cox, tho they usually beat me. It’s like a never-ending pimple I’m trying to pop. [SEE UPDATE BELOW}

Basically, there is ESSENTIAL QUALITY and there are the California speed horses that have promise to unseat Essential Quality – these include Baffert’s entries. On California speed I pass. [OBESOS, HOTROD CHARLIE MEDINA SPIRIT ROCKYOURWORLD SUPER STOCK]

Which brings us to my picks:

HIGHLY MOTIVATED #17 and KNOWN AGENDA #1

Also – Longshots : HELIUM #12 and BOURBONIC #20

The contenders

HIGHLY MOTIVATED. Trained by the capable Chad Brown and ridden by the able Javier Castellano. The horse was third in the Gotham and second in the Bluegrass. This horse was nipped at the wire in the Bluegrass by today's favorite. As we move to the Derby, we usually look for a horse that was coming on at the end of the last outing at a shorter distance.  But I have a feeling, with Brown, the rider may have been told the prize was the first Saturday in May. It’s the horse's third of the form cycle, which is a nice pattern for Brown. The horse is tactical and you’d like to see him in the forefront of the second wave on the back stretch. He is running from a tough hole on the outside, and may, like Essential Quality, have had too hard a race in the last. 

KNOWN AGENDA. The horse won the Florida Derby. Is in the 1-post -  which is of some controversy.  The jockey Irad Ortiz is very aggressive, and hot now. (There are some other jockeys that are coming in on good streaks here too of course.) This horse is seen as a fighter who will save ground, make his own trip, and make a late run. Trainer is capable Todd Pletcher, who has three other horses in the race.

The longshots:

HELIUM won the Tampa Bay Derby in style. But that is seen as not much and a long while ago by the betting public.

BOURBONIC. This is straight out heart over mind pick. The jockey is Kendrick Carmouche who has a winning personality. He has rebounded over several years from a devastating injury. BOURBONIC is a Pletcher-trained horse that went off at 72-1 in the Wood Memorial. The horse came from last to first to win.  Note If one has any leaning to BOURBONIC, he might also put some on DYNAMIC ONE #11  – that is the horse that BOURBONIC nipped at the end of the Wood Memorial. Final note: The Derby has 20 horses. It is hard for it to be run ‘true to form’ with so many horses. - Racetrack Romero

There’s really only one right answer. The question is: What is it? – Andy Serling.

After the ball

What do you know but my horses got pushed around, and the Baffert trained MEDINA led from post to wire. 8-7-9-14 was the final order. MEDINA-MANDOULIN-HOTROD CHARLIE-ESSENTIAL QUALITY. Each of their trainers has had some brush up w a substance issue but it usually is easily explained like "one of the stable help was sore and using BenGay." 

Sour grapes I guess. Here's my steeds' [which finished 9th and 10th] running lines:

KNOWN AGENDA was unhurried along the inside, shifted out into the stretch and improved under stern urging. HIGHLY MOTIVATED bumped ROCK YOUR WORLD at the start, tracked comfortably from midpack two wide around the first turn, shifted four wide to attempt a rally around the far turn, chased the leading group turning for home, but faded in midstretch.

In terms of posts if you add the #6 horse O BESOS, which came in 5th, you see 6,7,8,9 in your top 5. Maybe speed and the heart of the post is a good omen. These horses ran about 5 lengths ahead of the rest, which were made to look like grinders. Thank goodness my better half took MEDINA (at 12-1) and bailed us out on the day. [*UPDATE - May 9, 2021 - Derby Winner Fails Drug Test - NYT)