First week of the new year

 

“Mob Storms Capitol” blares the WSJ headline Thursday. US Capitol Breached roars CNN. Still, the capital markets go up up up. But Gold is neither bull nor bear. The Capital is stormed but the ship of finance sails on. If you have some mileage on your old frame, you say ‘things have changed.’ On the week Dow up 1.6%, S&P up 1.83%, and Nasdaq +2.43%. What happened quickly was an uptick in oil stocks, financials and industrials. Something long discussed. Something less discussed but which happened quickly as well: Interest rates creeping higher. Its all relative, but 20 base point burst will be fodder at Sunday night dinner. It’s the start of the year and the money is coming in and finding there just aren’t enough stocks.

Every day is a year. When I was in the middle of it, I really was totally engrossed with opportunity in the marketplace. – Boaz Weinstein, Feb-March 2020  

Thoughts on 2021: 

Covid 19 distribution is not a slam dunk. 

That will damper recovery. Of US and World. Less China, Korea an Japan.

Equities will continue to grow, although a lot of earnings growth is already priced in and 2022 will not compare favorably to 2021 in the same way 2021 will compare to 2020.

This year may be more like 2020 was expected to be. Less trade wars, less employment and less consumer spending.

Debt markets will continue same unless Biden tells Powell differently. 

The dollar will weaken slightly.

"Things in hindsight make complete sense." - Michael Holland