True Timber Shows True Timber in 2020 Cigar Mile
A bit less robust a slate of horses in this year's Cigar Mile on Dec. 5 than in some recent years, but still one with compelling interest for the betting throngs.
Among notable contestants were Performer (7-5 ML), King Guillermo (9-2), Mr. Buff (6-1), Snapper Sinclair (20-1), True Timber (15-1), Bon Raison (20-1) and others. Rain put some damper on this punter's enthusiasm, but the race did provide a full share of drama.
The composition of the race pace changed muchly when rains came and led to the scratch of Firenze Fire, a horse that had repeatedly fizzled in his off-track attempts. This refugee from the under indictment Jason Service barn loomed a possible pace setter, and winner of 3 of 7 on the year (including a third last out in the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile). Firenze was to finish second later in the month to late moving Sleep Eye Todd at Gulfstream in the Mr Prospector Stakes.
more to come
The horses were pretty well matched for speed and consistency. Some posed questions of class and form.
Four-year-old Performer, a Phips homebred trained by Chug McGaughey, had won all but one of six races in his life, but had only run once this year, and might not have the conditioning against this group. The horse had run well on off tracks.
Three-year-old King Guillermo, owned by retired baseballer Victor Martinez, had not run since finishing second to Baffert's Nadal in the rescheduled Arkansas Derby on the first week of May.
Five-year-old Jack Sisterton-trained Bon Raison, something of a hearty plugger, which had won an OC-$150 at Keenland before finishing way up the track in a moonshot attempt at the Breeders Cup Sprint at that same track last out, had seemed over his career to prove no match for the top class of horses.
Six-year old Mr. Buff over the last two seasons had run with little success against the nation's best, but with near total dominance in fields limited to New York State breds. The horse had run well in the rain.
The pace seemed likely to include the same said Mr. Buff and King Guillermo, with six-year-old True Timber, also of the Sisterton stable and ridden by the preferred front-runner jockey Kendrick Carmouche, also involved. A contested pace might favor a come from behind runner such as Performer, Snapper Sinclair or Bon Raison. My inclination was that Mr. Buff was going to step up.
What happened in the race's running was that King Guillermo vied with Mr Buff, while True Timber stalked, taking control just at the head of the stretch, as these faded, to win by over 5 lengths. The half was a heady 45 4/5ths seconds.
I had True Timber underneath, but today was his day. The horse in his career has hit the board 18 out of 28 times, and had True Timber has always been in the hunt but hadnt won in over two years. The ride by Kenneth Carmouche was stellar, and proofed he has more capacit than just to get out on the front and run hard.
The gelding True Timber has garnered over $1 million in all those seconds and thirds in high-rank races, including a second and a third in the Cigar Mile in 2018 and 2019, respectively! But I'd lost with him too many times to bet him today. Even can look back on recent notes where I wrote of Timber "never again." Ha! Today was the day to have True Timber on top, and to take that as a lesson. A $16.60 pay off on the win.
Other lessons of the year in capping follow. - Baruch Bernard
Lessons learned 2020
The basic course of handicapping remains to discern class, form, speed, aptitude at the distance, and pace. Pace is most difficult as it is a dynamic mesh that comprises horses, jocks and trainer pairing AT THIS PARTICULAR MOMENT IN TIME.
Re form – horses can fall off form. Re speed - Consistent speed is a telling factor, but you have to be able to able to ‘toss’ a race sometimes.
The jockeys and trainers look at the Pace likelihood just as bettors do, and how they adjust is very hard to call. A study might look at how actual race paces compared to expectations.
Don’t favor the horse because of last race and don’t fault jockey for previous race on card.
One is always biased by the last thing one saw.
Be careful to decide that a horse clunked up. “Clunking up” is where I lose objectivity. Making a good run but being blocked in key moments is just racing luck, or coming against a horse with better class or trip, is not the “clunk-up” horse's fault.
"Best Last Quarter" is often key indicator.
Each decision represents a balance of head, id and heart.
Don’t say Never Again with True Timber.
For a year's full of of 2020 Exciting Races go to my YouTube compilation.
"Betting a horse based on its success is a way to go broke." - Andy Serling.
Click red band link for analysis of 2017 Cigar Mile, with tribute to the original "Cigar" .
Comments