Racing Today
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| "Almost even." |
Ups and downs, yknow. Mostly I have been studying pace, and paying for my education. When I couple that with generally accepted objective views of class .. I find worthy favorites and sometimes, favorites worth betting gainst - tho not nough of such to quit my day job.
"Nature is the source of all true knowledge. She has her own logic, her own laws, she has no effect without cause or invention without necessity." - Leonardo DaVinci
This was one of the strangest Kentucky Derby days ever, as the race was actually postponed until Sept due to Covid-19 virus. The hearty punters of Arkansas did continue racing, however, albeit without fans, tho there were a few True Mericans in lawn chairs without masks on the other side of the fence where the six furlong starting gate was. They moved the Arkansas Derby (generally an April KDerby prep) to the first Sunday in May, and drew two full slates, running the race in two divisions. As so often the case the answer to 'who will win' was Baffert.
Churchill starts up without crowds May 16 - "whew" says the gambling public as it was getting kind of dicey.
My focus was on the first race, as allowances and optional claimers have been more fruitful for me than Stakes. The first seemed to logically belong to Timely Tradition, ridden by Joel Rosario who would win several on the day. The horse had the best last-race Beyer in the field, and some pretty steady numbers, and went off as favorite. But that logicality is only so in retrospect. The runners in the first three positions (Time Tradition, Full of Grace and Miss Imperial) seemed very closely matched.
In the running, Timely Tradition moved much more quickly to the front than I anticipated but that was good. He faced a field of winners, but when True Castle scratched, the sole speed became Hawt Mess. Roasario and trainer must have decided to go. Remember: Jocks and Trainers read past perfornaces too - and note scratches.
Giving Rosario as jock the nod over also capable Joe Talamo and Walter DeLaCruz spelled the difference between the logicals, and these two alternative possibilites finished up the track.
Timely set fractions of 21 and 4, 45 and 1 and a final time of 1 and 9. Very fit. Timely paid about $12 across the board. My secondary pick, First Alternate, didnt stay with the pace, and didnt have a kick in the drive.
So, for me, the Strange 2020 Arkansas Derby Day overall was a gas. But it was a day of just breaking even in the end, with logical favorites keeping me head above the water, as imaginative alternatives lagged. Other near-favorite or favorite horses that were good to me on the day were By My Standards and Endorsed. Placing but well behind the winners were Governour Morris and King Guillermo.
Not infalliable but top Beyer is a valuable indicator.
Chart
https://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=OP&CTY=USA&DATE=20200502&RN=1
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The pic at the top is a reconstructive fragment from the men's room at the Sistine Chapel.
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