Sad Cup O' Saud and other battles

Some real riding to watch here, in races where I held no investments.

Luis Saez and  Jason Service get revenge for the Derby Disqual in the richest race to date in history, the Saudi Cup. Normally on the lead, Maximum Security* settles in nicely and then moves strongly forward up a long sandy stretch in the 1 1/8 mile route. Watch the flagging leader Much Gusto veer out and then in to mount impedance to the eventual winner (jockey Irad Ortiz gets chastised [but not days] for the zig and zag. Mare Midnight Bisou comes on like gangbusters for second, and Mike Smith is fined for striking the horse more than 10 x - getting a 12+ day suspension and losing $200,000 out of his share of the purse. He is a great jockey but one wonders if maybe he was counting the money and not the lashes. Guess Saudia Arabia is looking to spruce up its image.

*On Mar. 9 DoJ will indict Jason Servis, Jorge Navarro and others for use of illicit performance enhancers.

Their shenanigans were widely suspected, and a reason Romeo often bet against their horses or passed on a race that included them. The clues available to the punter are depiected her by Andrew Beyer as heard on Steve Byk radio show related by Horse Racing Nation's Carolyn Geer.

Beyer said he can get a sense of who might be cheating by looking at statistics.

“I’ve always thought that a trainer who can win 20 percent of the time is a really outstanding trainer,” he said. “And if you look at current guys who are active now and are in the hall of fame, Steve Asmussen is like a 20 percent winning trainer. Bill Mott, 21 percent for his career. Bob Baffert a little over that.

"Over the last five years, Jorge Navarro has won with 29 percent of his starters; Jason Servis 28 percent. You mean these guys just came from nowhere and they’re better than Bill Mott and Steve Asmussen? I don’t believe it.

“The statistic for me that is even more revealing … is a trainer’s winning percentage the first time off a claim. When one trainer can consistently improve on horses – like not over a long period of time, but overnight, or in the first start since claiming – when they do that consistently, it certainly raises my eyebrows.

"Navarro over the last five years has won 24 percent first time off the claim. Jason Servis has won 35 percent in his first starts after a claim. That’s impossible.”

On March 11 we will rename this post "Sad Cup O' Saud..."

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Tyler Gafflione confidentally pilots Pegasus Turf Winner Zulu Alpha to victory in the MacGiver Stakes. Last in the early going in this turf route, he begins a strong move on the turn for home, makes no effort to save ground, and then blasts past the assembled herd. Zulu Alpha right now is unbeatable turf leader which has learned to rate and can win from any angle of attack.





Ete Indien comes from the far outside post to take the lead immediately ("enterprising tactics" under Floran Geroux and then ends up winning by 7 lengths in the venerable Fountain of Youth Stakes. Good plan and execution.