Random Notes on 2019: Trackman
"Trying to discuss precision in horse racing is like trying to nail jelly to a tree." - Dick Mitchell [per Ellis Starr]
"Racing Gods don’t read the papers." - Bob Neumeier
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Things to keep in mind:
*Think 3 times before heavy emphasis pick on a late closer - how often does the pace develop differently than on paper?
*Dont do a lot of exotic combos with a long shot. Too many exactas does not help your chances.
*Pass on off tracks
*Don’t subscribe to email alerts that remind you a horse that seemed to run well once is running today.
*Horses stepping up are at least 50/50 shots to fade.
*It seems like missing by a couple of lengths is the likely outcome of most bets.
*Always ask who has the best numbers in these categories: top speed, good last quarter in last, good final position in last - then say should I pick this horse?
*You have invested faith in your first selection that will cloud your mind to outliers.
*You have to keep trying. You learn all the time. you learn more and more.
*Gauge how strong or weak are the favorites in form or class.
*Ask what horse/horses has/have shown recent good form
*Ponder what is the likely shape of the race.
*A useful tool for gauging bets is the Kelly Estimator. Picking winners is not the whole job - betting efficiently helps.
*You can't get rich at this - you can, however, finance your hobby.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Commentary:
The challenge of handicapping is to study the past, look at the differing current and eddies and visualize how they are leading into today's race. Funny though, nothing seems to spell sucess qyite like a big last move; You have to check the numbers to see if it was as fast as it looked, and guess at what is in store in the face of different runners today. But since I first started watching Suffolk Downs replays in the 1980s, this has been the most fun part. My most favorite races of this year played out this way, with one race leading into another. As in the case of Blue Prize moving from the Spinster into the Breeders Cup Distaff; Code of Honor moving from the Dwyer to the Travers. And, most especially, Sir Winston moving from the Peter Pan to the Belmont Stakes.
Spinster https://youtu.be/guVFmDOBzjQ?t=72
Breeders Cup Distaff https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyJ9yyue3VI
Peter Pan https://youtu.be/fC_h9tKCBAI?t=83
Belmont https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGpuF19ZrU0
Dwyer https://youtu.be/UxyftbS8rkA?t=79
Travers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNGWO3I6lbM
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Notes:
So many times this year, success came after well-thought out bets failed, with spot plays. The spot plays went something like this: I’ve seen this horse endeavor, and improve a number of times, while usually missing the board. But the crowd has ignored him today, and he is going off at rich odds.
Oscar Dominguez - #7 – Did you say ' the crowd has ignored him today, and he is going off at rich odds?' Such was the story with Oscar Dominguez in the Hollywood Turf Cup (Grade II) race 5 at Del Mar 12/1/19. Oscar went off at 8-1. The favorite was United at 6/5. Oscar trailed together with United, but Oscar got the best run up the stretch to win by a length and a half. Oscar was born in Ireland, trained by Richard Balthas, and ridden by John Velasquez.
Next Shares - #3 – The day previous something similar. It’s the Seabiscuit (Stooge’s fave) Handicap (Grade II) race 6 at Del Mar 11/30/19. This time the wind comes via old friend Next Shares against top runners such as Majestic Eagle, River Boyne, Sacred Life and others, running at 25-1. Again, the trainer is Balthas, and the jockey is a new one to me, Jose Valdevia. In a field of 10 on the turf, the jock struggles to gain position, just like the others. Coming around the final bend, he and the horse simultaneously see a thin but miraculous opening on the very inside and deliberately and succesfully vie to gain that daylight and then hold on to the advantage to the wire.
Mongolian Groom #5 – At Santa Anita, the Awesome Again Stakes (Grade I) - September 28, 2019. He was a trier, Mongolian Groom, finished 3rd in the Pacific Classic, and, trained by Mongolian Enebish Ganbat , he carried the misty aura of the Mongolian steppes. Ridden by Abel Cedillo. As the horse would encounter Baffert’s McKinzie, the top steed in the handicap in division, but always a question mark, and John Sadler’s Higher Power, not even Ganbat expected him to win - he admitted afterward he put a bet on Groom only to place. But the hrose grabbed the lead, kept it, had gas in the tank at the end, and won at 25-1. But tragedy lurked ...
... Yes, tragedy lurked as Mongolian Groom broke down in his next race, the Breeder’s Cup Classic at the same track, a track that saw oh too numerous fatalities during what amounted to a horrible year for Southern California racing. I don’t doubt that the exertion in the Awesome Again set the stage for the heartbreak in the Breeders Cup. In an interview after the Awesome Again Trainer Ganbat said he didnt expect to supplement the horse for the Breeders, and wanted to go to Japan with Mongolian Groom. First thought, best thought. - Trackman
"Racing Gods don’t read the papers." - Bob Neumeier
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Things to keep in mind:
*Think 3 times before heavy emphasis pick on a late closer - how often does the pace develop differently than on paper?
*Dont do a lot of exotic combos with a long shot. Too many exactas does not help your chances.
*Pass on off tracks
*Don’t subscribe to email alerts that remind you a horse that seemed to run well once is running today.
*Horses stepping up are at least 50/50 shots to fade.
*It seems like missing by a couple of lengths is the likely outcome of most bets.
*Always ask who has the best numbers in these categories: top speed, good last quarter in last, good final position in last - then say should I pick this horse?
*You have invested faith in your first selection that will cloud your mind to outliers.
*You have to keep trying. You learn all the time. you learn more and more.
*Gauge how strong or weak are the favorites in form or class.
*Ask what horse/horses has/have shown recent good form
*Ponder what is the likely shape of the race.
*A useful tool for gauging bets is the Kelly Estimator. Picking winners is not the whole job - betting efficiently helps.
*You can't get rich at this - you can, however, finance your hobby.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Commentary:
The challenge of handicapping is to study the past, look at the differing current and eddies and visualize how they are leading into today's race. Funny though, nothing seems to spell sucess qyite like a big last move; You have to check the numbers to see if it was as fast as it looked, and guess at what is in store in the face of different runners today. But since I first started watching Suffolk Downs replays in the 1980s, this has been the most fun part. My most favorite races of this year played out this way, with one race leading into another. As in the case of Blue Prize moving from the Spinster into the Breeders Cup Distaff; Code of Honor moving from the Dwyer to the Travers. And, most especially, Sir Winston moving from the Peter Pan to the Belmont Stakes.
Spinster https://youtu.be/guVFmDOBzjQ?t=72
Breeders Cup Distaff https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyJ9yyue3VI
Peter Pan https://youtu.be/fC_h9tKCBAI?t=83
Belmont https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGpuF19ZrU0
Dwyer https://youtu.be/UxyftbS8rkA?t=79
Travers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNGWO3I6lbM
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Notes:
So many times this year, success came after well-thought out bets failed, with spot plays. The spot plays went something like this: I’ve seen this horse endeavor, and improve a number of times, while usually missing the board. But the crowd has ignored him today, and he is going off at rich odds.
Oscar Dominguez - #7 – Did you say ' the crowd has ignored him today, and he is going off at rich odds?' Such was the story with Oscar Dominguez in the Hollywood Turf Cup (Grade II) race 5 at Del Mar 12/1/19. Oscar went off at 8-1. The favorite was United at 6/5. Oscar trailed together with United, but Oscar got the best run up the stretch to win by a length and a half. Oscar was born in Ireland, trained by Richard Balthas, and ridden by John Velasquez.
Next Shares - #3 – The day previous something similar. It’s the Seabiscuit (Stooge’s fave) Handicap (Grade II) race 6 at Del Mar 11/30/19. This time the wind comes via old friend Next Shares against top runners such as Majestic Eagle, River Boyne, Sacred Life and others, running at 25-1. Again, the trainer is Balthas, and the jockey is a new one to me, Jose Valdevia. In a field of 10 on the turf, the jock struggles to gain position, just like the others. Coming around the final bend, he and the horse simultaneously see a thin but miraculous opening on the very inside and deliberately and succesfully vie to gain that daylight and then hold on to the advantage to the wire.
Mongolian Groom #5 – At Santa Anita, the Awesome Again Stakes (Grade I) - September 28, 2019. He was a trier, Mongolian Groom, finished 3rd in the Pacific Classic, and, trained by Mongolian Enebish Ganbat , he carried the misty aura of the Mongolian steppes. Ridden by Abel Cedillo. As the horse would encounter Baffert’s McKinzie, the top steed in the handicap in division, but always a question mark, and John Sadler’s Higher Power, not even Ganbat expected him to win - he admitted afterward he put a bet on Groom only to place. But the hrose grabbed the lead, kept it, had gas in the tank at the end, and won at 25-1. But tragedy lurked ...
... Yes, tragedy lurked as Mongolian Groom broke down in his next race, the Breeder’s Cup Classic at the same track, a track that saw oh too numerous fatalities during what amounted to a horrible year for Southern California racing. I don’t doubt that the exertion in the Awesome Again set the stage for the heartbreak in the Breeders Cup. In an interview after the Awesome Again Trainer Ganbat said he didnt expect to supplement the horse for the Breeders, and wanted to go to Japan with Mongolian Groom. First thought, best thought. - Trackman
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