Laurel optional claimer in November

"You never know what will happen until it does." - Cousin Lyn, WHRB Hillbilly at Harvard host.

Tis a long long way from May to November, the days are getting shorter, and a cold rain is in the offing. We'll try and pass on the Red Smith at Aqueduct and the Native Dancer stakes at Delmar. But the horses show promise in a running at Laurel, and in Race 6 we are anticipating a fair and competitive event of 7 steeds running in a modest $50,000 optional claimer.

Let’s look at a couple we see as likely candidates.

Celtic Chaos comes from the barn of the blisteringly hot Brad Cox, is an 8 to 5 favorite on the morning line didn't do too well last time out – was halted, steadied and labeled as empty on the chart. That was a 6 1/2 furlong outing, and it seems 6-y-o Celtic Chaos does not really run much or has had success at today’s distance of 7 and a half F But he has gained 661  thousand dollars in winnings, he's won two  out of the last three, and he comes in from the august New York circuit.

Saratoga Bob doesn’t have high speed, but he has consistent numbers. Bob is the only one running for a tag – that is off-putting in many a punter’s predictive model. This is his home track but he is not qualified (as is Honor the Fleet, which is also a distance specialist) as a horse for the course. He missed by two lengths in his last while making a bid. While, like Celtic, having not won at the distance, he had run a good time at the appointed interval of ground required today.

Looking at possible pace I can see Three Over Deuces [2] and Honor the Fleet [3] in the front early. Honor, which has a favorable 3 post, unfortunately, is coming off a 5 month break, tho he gains top jock Trevor McCarthy. A speed duel could be important in this sprint, and Laurel handicapper Tim Tullock  sees Three Over as top pick. {with Tybalt and Celtic Chaos under}. DRF is in much the same camp as Tullock.

I visualize Tybalt [6] and Ballover [7] closing strongly. Tybalt’s trainer Carlos Martin, like Cox, is hot.

Yet it the tweeners that gain my attention -  I see 1 and 4, Celtic Chaos and Saratoga Bob pressing, conserving and succeeding, with not much to separate them except their morning line odds. I will give the weight to the longer odds garnerer. And embrace the uncertainty of the claim. Three Over [2] has potential in my estimate too, could be used underneath – may need a race. 

But Bob was close all the way... all the way to the stretch, where he folded tent - but may have gotten 4th. I would not bet him again. I wonder if he was claimed. (Ed Note: No.) At 7-1, Honor the Fleet won. He relaxed on the lead, then ran a blistering 21 sec 2nd quarter mile and obtained second win for day for Trevor McCarthy. I saw his value and included him in bets, but every bet had Bob in it, and he was up the track. Long shots in too many exacta combos drain assets.

I saw a perfect symmetry of closers and early ones and picked the mid packers. That's the story that carried me. The winner paid a healthy $17 to win. Given that it was odd the exacta was only $35. Very short fave Celtic Chaos got second.

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Bailed out on the day with stone cold exacta of Sadler's Joy and Red Knight. Sadler has been a marvelous router  to watch over the years. His able trainer Tom Albertoni passed up Breeders Cup (where the horse had hit the board twice) to run here in the (vaunted) Red Smith Handicap at Acqueduct.

Tho a marvel -- he has won $2,471,360 -- he can be tough to take, because the timing of his run has to be exactly right. Great ride by Javier Castellano.