Up the Ante in the 7th at Saratoga - Siberian Iris in the 7th at Del Mar

The ponies run, the girls are young

The odds are there to beat

You win a while and then it's done

Your little winning streak. - Leonard Cohen

[August 17, 2019] -- On vacation. There were light clouds in the Aqua blue Sky as green tractors pulled their harrows across the dirt early on the track at vaunted. Saratoga. But the race of interest to Romeo was the 7th race, which was on the turf at 1 3/16 m. An optional claimer for 80K.

 The general consensus pick ( NYRA cappers Andy Serling, David Aragona, Anthony Stabile) and favorite was 4YO Up the Ante (1) piloted by Joel Rosario for Christophe Clement. The horse has gained $230,000 in his 9-race career, and has closed in at times on the promise there that led the original purchase for $350K of Up the Ante out of Smart strike by Mister Prospector. Notably he won last year in July the Manila at Belmont. This is his 3rd outing of the year without a victory. In his last at Monmouth he faded but he could improve today stepping down in class. For my thinking the recent works are kind of dull but I tread on troubled waters to second guess trainer Clement. He looks to be the lone speed by some measures, in a speedless – as is wont in turfs and Saratoga - race. I will couple Up the Ante with my pick.

The horse that appeals to me is Aquaphobia (3) ridden by Kendrick Carmouche and trained by Robert Falcone Jr. The horse has shown good form in his last which was run at 1 3/16 a mile. TheThe race was his first since Feb in Fla. Clearly, he is cutting back today – to a distance that has found him able, hitting the board in all but one of 11 tries. Good works, speed is competitive. Tho he has garnered over $300k, his class is yet to be determined - and it seems to me Aquaphobia should be able to handle most any pace - however i'm looking for him to have one of the best races of his life, as Anthony's Stabile, who threw the horse on as an afterthought on his card suggest as much. Courageously I assert that I aint afraid of Aquaphobia's chances.


Other horses of interest are Zaperini, Lunaire and Maurad. I included the first two in my exotic wagers. Being on a budget, I left Maraud off, with some trepidation., as I have seen him victorious. He is older now, in for a claim today, which I found jarring.** While they all pick Up the Ante, the NYRA experts seem to agree that Multiplier, one I looked past, is 'very logical here.'

The final betting put Up The Ante as the favorite at 6/5, followed by Zapperini and Aquaphobia. Behind them in the wagering came Multiplier and Maraud.

The end result saw Up The Ante on the inside as the winner at the wire, but only by the slimmest of margins over Multiplier and Maraud as shown here. Aquaphobia to my chagrin got a 4th, behind by a length or two.


Up the ante went right to the front while Aquaphobia and Lunair dropped directly to the back. Zapperini tardy at the start back even more so (8 L ).

Mauraud pressed Up the Ante somewhat. But the clip she was an easy clip - the first quarter was a snail-paced 25.58 thanks to jockey Rosario who may have won the race then and there - the half was 50.29.

At the stretch Mauraud and Up the Ante were tight on the lead as Multiplier pressed. It was then a fight to the finish where Anyr prevailed. Behind the first three, Aquaphobia won a picture for 4th.

There were unanticipated variables. The trip for Aqua was quite unpleasant almost from the start. He got stuck in between horses early, he was somewhat taken up at some point, and almost clicked heels with one of the other runners, and was about 5-wide coming around the final turn.

Race shape (pace) and class seemed to help Up the Ante and play against Aquaphobia, who did not grace us with the greatest race of his life. Back class seemed to shine for Maraud and arguably Multiplier. A little losing streak continues.

On the main, perhaps, the uncertainty here was about the  lot of the second rank of runners in the face of horses stepping down. The uncertainty was resolved in favor of the down stepper - not the upstepper - as has been common in Romeo's experience of late.  How Up the Ante would run on his 3rd back was a matter on uncertainty too - but the stats shows the trainer does well in these types of situations, and is doing well overall this year.

That in retrospect makes the back classer in apparent good form a better bet than the stepping upper in apparent good form. We tried this out on the Del Mar card that followed later on. In the feature gave extra weight to a horse that had placed in a Grade 2 (though it was an interesting field, only one other horse among the herd of 7 had done as much).  It's usually unwise to take the last mistake as a cue for the next analysis but this time it worked. At 7-1 Mandella's Siberian Iris managed (by the merest nose) to pay for all the other fun we had on the vacation day.  – R.R.

** Maraud was claimed by Collinsworth Thoroughbred Racing LLC; trainer, Carlos Martin.