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Mott's Country House wins Derby as foul called on Maximum Security


By no means would I claim to have anything to add to the discussion on the actual running of this year’s Kentucky Derby, which was the most controversial such running in my 30 plus years of following the sport. While the disqualification of Maximum Security, who crossed the wire first, didn’t seem appropriate to me at the time, I can see the logic behind the judge’s decision better today.

What the results drive home, as is usually the case, is how hard it is to predict what will happen with fine granularity. The $132-plus payoff for the winner by DQ Country House shows that the best minds of horse playing did not see this coming.

Yes, after the fact you can see that Country House ran very near (third) behind logical choices Utah Beach (a scratch today) and Improbable in the Arkansas Derby, which was also mud smeared. The charts be dammed - he was running on nicely at the end of that. Today he was ridden by Flavien Prat, who launched the foul claim. * ***

Maximum Security also showed ability on slop. Yet he just seemed to suddenly switch leads and jump out in tight quarters looking at a puddle on the turn. His jockey brought him back in line quickly, but there were a few steps – ones where his hooves were nearly intertwined with closing-fast competitor War of Will ably ridden by Tyler Gafflione -- that could have created a horrible pile up. I really felt badly for Luis Saez, who felt the thrill of victory and agony of defeat in a mere 22 minutes. Gary Stevens, Kent Desourmeaux and others stood up for the rider even as they seconded the DQ.

Maximum Security by my measure ran an incredible race. He lived up to his Beyer figure, which loomed over the others’. He was called the wise guys horse ahead of the Derby, but on race day he gained backers’ selections as he eventually went off as the 4-1 favorite. He lead just about from wire to wire. He set fast early fractions, and found respite before the dramatic stretch. He was headed briefly by Code of Honor (one of my picks) and then came back to charge on -  which is pretty rare, especially in a race like this.




The Derby is so unique in that all the handicapping top ranks have to have opinions. My interest in this race is as much about handicapping the handicappers as it is in handicapping the horses. None outside of a couple at TVG that I found picked the apparent winner. None anywhere in my survey picked the eventual winner due to DQ.  You don’t get to 67-1 unless you are getting overlooked; how many people ran out of energy before they got to the 20th horse (Country's position) to review?

Above are the TVG crews' pics. Several, level-headed like me picked Improbable on top.

I do find it interesting where my opinions match with another picker regularly. It’s awful tempting to just get his or her picks, and just enjoy the race, as so much time goes into this.

Here’s what I came up with three: Improbable, Game Winner, Code of Honor (long shot).

Here’s a rundown of some noted handicappers’ top picks:

Dan Illman: Tacitus
Mike Beers: Improbable
Andy Sterling: Tacitus
Jeff Siegel: Improbable
Eddie Olzcyk: Code of Honor
Anthony Stabile: Tacitus
Andrew Champagne: Improbable
David Aragona: Game Winner
Matt Bernier: Win Win Win




A saving place bet on Code of Honor put me fairly even on the race. All horse players are always almost breaking even, of course. But it was another tough beat. Code of Honor had a tough go (with no place else to go) on the inside. Improbable and Game Winner saddled up behind him for 4th and 5th. War of Will faded after his close encounter. I cant stand the rain.

Addenda:


*This is condensed in a heuristic: Always take second look at one that recently finished near on of your other choices in last and, if next is longer race and perhaps on similar (say, sloppy) surface, take special note.


***You know the problem with heuristics, don’t you? They pile up on top of one another, and in a race with a 20-horse field you are bound to miss a heuristic, even if or unless you have made a full time job out of this.

Here's the final order:

Maximum Security DQd and placed 17th

W-Country House

P-Code of Honor

S-Tacitus

4th-Improbable

5th-Game Winner

Master Fencer

War of Will

Plus Que Parfait

Win Win Win

Cutting Humor

By My Standards

Vekoma

Bodexpress

Tax

Roadster

Long Range Toddy

Spinoff

Gray Magician

Kent D's straight no chaser take - he discusses something I was unaware of - different riding styles in the East than the West. Note in this recording, his sympathy for Luis Saez "I know he will be walking around with something like a big pill the sideways the size of a quarter stuck in his throat for sometime." and his sympathy for winning jock Flavien Prat "I see him smile, but its a little crooked smile at the side."
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