Certainty, be gone!
[April 9, 2019] - The day yesterday was somber, cold and rainy. The Red Sox left tying runs stranded, and lost the home opener. That is not always a bad sign. The following day scientists would publish the first picture of a back hole.
My gestalt ached for a sunny clime so I pulled out the past performances at Tampa Bay Downs
Ah, Tampa Bay, where the Cuban cigar rollers play. The scene of some success for Racetrack Romeo. Tampa where the horses are cheap but formful.
It could erase the weekend at Keenland. Keenland with its high breeding and high class. Where it may be true to form, but the truth is one I’ve yet to discern. It’s just one of those places where you seem to have little luck – not like Tampa.
The cure for the blues is the Fifth Race on Wednesday.For fillies and mares on the turf. Its a low-level $22,500 one at 5 furlongs for 3 years old and up.
Some views:
1 Token Vow – a former Phil D’Amato charge sent East
2-Mr Foo Do – broke her maiden in last
3-Karsdale – second off claim for Jonathan Thomas
4-Opulent – which failed in stake
5-Nilestar-Lightly raced, stepping down in class
6-Nora’s Drama – Consistently close
7-Citizen Matzo – a horse looking for her level
Nilestar got my attention because she had room to improve, but had shown some consistent (Equibase) speed. Being trained by Todd Pletcher, who is coming back to usual (22%) winning in 2018 rate, would count as a plus as well as having won at the distance. I picked to place and show, not to win, in some part because a tout said he’d done well betting against such 3 year olds in races with older horses at this time in the season. Seemed a reasonable epitomigm.
Knarsdale got the fuller nod to win and place. The horse did well coming off a 1 ½ year layoff in a March 20 outing here. Is new to the turf. Has the highest last speed in field (but clearly not a recent record of consistency).
My method is a method but not brilliant. I came up with the same top two choices as betting public.
Knarsdale took the lead and fought til end but gave way by half a neck to Citizen Matzo. Might not have helped that fractious Knarsdale busted gate open with nose at the start.
The only ticket that paid for me was the Place.
Forensic inspection indicates the horse with no name but Citizen Matzo was off a 5 month layoff for a trainer – Roy Lerman — with a tremendous recent win rate (43% for 7 races) and very high ROI rate didn’t have as high a recent number as either pick. Had won its only race here, had otherwise raced in New York Had gone from $77k to $66k to, today, $22k in Allowance company. Nilestar kind of started slow, trailed, and clunked up at the end for the 4th or 5th spot.
Just thinking - I should pick in rated order three horses, even if I bet just two. Even a stated opinion on just two of seven leaves you hanging if another one wins.
One thing I nose: If you lose by a nose or a half a neck (Eddie Dellahousie does not consider the latter close!), you have to chock it up to it was the other horse’s day, and the general uncertainty of the world you live in. But the sun of Tampa has qualities of the elixir.
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