Labels

Takes on pace


Pace is perhaps the most difficult aspect of handicapping for expert and novice alike. Three recent races help portray the white hot supersonic blistering pace and what it leaves in its wake.



In the Gotham Stakes, one of the bigger jewels in the lately less-than stellar New York path to the Kentucky Derby, the phenomenon of pace seemed to be a principal decider, and a neat conundrum for handicappers going forward.

Bob Baffert’s bright West Coaster Much Better bumped into another horse at the start and then burst to the lead, along with Knick Go, which faded at the half way mark. West Coast was then engaged by Mind Control and Instagrand. The fractions were 22 and 1 and 44 and 2, and this set things up for winner Haikal who came out of nowhere.

That made a classic case of a closer finding a huge pace to close into or a favorable trip that will vex punters going forward.

Notes:  KnicksGo was a side bet on my part. As a 2yearold he had one incredible second in the Breeders Cup Futurity.  The general after-analysis is that he was ‘sent’ – people, including jockeys and trainers, read the pace estimates and come up with strategies – and that have been case here. Even a failed (23 lengths off the winner) strategy on knick Go’s part effects the final outcome.

More Notes: The Gotham running led David Aragon and Craig Milkowski of TimeFormUSA to offer some interesting thoughts on how Derby prep races are panning out. Cheap speed (KnickGo, maybe si/Much Better maybe not in the cheap speed  category) is finishing up the track, and not gaining Derby points necessary to make the field on the first Saturday in May – will the Derby, which usually has a semi-guaranteed fast pace be run without early speed this time.

Yet More Notes: Aragon and Milkowski also said it is good to relate charts to visual review of races - there is insight to be gained by the experienced viewer in personally judging the pace from a few angles, they surmise.

Signals that prospectively point to potential outcomes exist in isolation on paper – when the gate opens the dice are tossed and the signals take on new characteristics as they – and sometimes the horses – collide with reality. Speculation about pace is the handicappers way of imaginarily stirring the drink and watching the sediments settle. Summed up it is in von Moltke the Elder’s dictum: .. No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy.

https://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=AQU&CTY=USA&DATE=20190309&RN=10


In the Tampa Bay Derby, something similar occurred - as a speedy Zenden established a hot pace, going in 22.79 and 45.85 to better Well Defined ... only to set the stage for Bill Mott's Tacitus who came on with a late kick.
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment