Next Shares in the San Gabriel, 2019

Much of the cognitive research of the day is around and about predictable irrational bias. There are different tyeps of bias, and I feel if I encountered several of them in the run up to the San Gabriel Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 5, 2019. Of course it is not just about one horse, it is about several.

This was a a tough one in that I have won and/or lost with several horses in this race (and each time formed new opinions about): Next Shares, Liam the Charmer, Flamboyant, Chicago Style and Oscar Dominquez.

I lost in November using Next Shares in a Breeders Cup race where I felt he put up a pretty tepid effort. His trainers say as they so often do that the horse didn’t like the footing. I developed a you let me down and you are overrated bias.

Flamboyant is a 9 year old who always tries, gets good numbers still, and who might benefit from a cut back and a hottish pace. Having won with him and lost, I picked him in the San Gabriel. Both Dan Illiman and Mike Beer picked Flamboyant too which truth be told was enough to push me over the edge. That is the oh what the heck I am really not listening to these guys they are just smart like I am bias.

Picked the old boyant flame along with Oscar Dominquez. I guess at15-1 this was a you never know bias.

Looking back, Next Shares had last out run a good number and was very close to some very very good company. The race today set up for him to win and, running as favorite, he did.

That Breeders Cup (and the day around it, miserable) were too much on my mind. My bias runnethed over.

Flamboyant and Oscar finished 6th and 8th.

Something this race drove home. How closely thoroughbreds can be matched. Yes they were 6th and 8th, but they were only about 3 and 4 lengths, respectively, off the pace of the winner.   Makes me think of Darwin, who based much of the roots of his Origins of Species on domestic breeding studies. The doctor told my mother I was smart, he just didnt mention my dreadful rash of cognitive bias.

Watch the running of the San Gabriel for 2019.