Last of the year - the Sixth at Santa Anita

Trainer James Cassidy appears to me as if he could walk straight
onto the set of Gunga Din if something happens to Victor McLaughlin.

“I don’t call it prediction. I call it ‘creating reasonable expectations.’’ – John Bogle

Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Mutual Funds, was not one to go for home runs. On December 28, let’s take an approach to 6th at Santa Anita by focusing on reasonable expectations, more than prediction.

To save time, I will first focus here on horses with reasonable expectations as can be deigned from the Morning Line – those at 5-1 or under. All the while admitting that overall it looks like a dandy race in which none of the horses are really without some chance in this 1 1/8th jaunt on the turf.

Epical (8) (4-1) - Out of Uncle Mo and trained by James Cassidy (trainder of such as Prize Exhibit and  Ocho Ocho Ocho), the horse Epical ran 4 L off the topnotch River Boyne two back in the Twilight Derby. Tyler Baze may have opted for this over another mount in the event. While the horse hasn’t won at the distance, only a few of his fellow runners have either, and he has hit the board at the distance 2 out of 4 tries (all recent- and progressively faster in Beyers), gaining a good adjusted 1:47.4 time in the Twilight. If he runs as he did in the last he could well be on the lead at the first call, or at the ¾ m mark, which I’d guess would be as fast as 1:10. He could hook up with another horse or two on the front end, and this could be a risk for his backers.

Starting Bloc (1) (ML 4-1) – This 4 year old descends from Broad Brush, an old favorite or ours who was a steady unflashy campaigner. Starting Bloc has progressively improved his Beyers – has won at 1 m and 1 ¼ m, but has not even run at today’s distance. Should be running late. I’d estimate he might be capable of 1:51 adjusted time, somewhat off some of the others here.

Ya Gotta Wanna (3)(7-2) (Favorite)– Ridden for Phil D’Amato by able (22% W) Flavien Prat, has been up and down and nibbling since a wins first out after leaving the maiden ranks in Feb. He has, however won three times at this course. He was close (admittedly, in a cavalry charge) to as good as Bigger Picture in the Hollywood Turf Cup in Nov – a 1 ½ m race. He could be near at the front, vying with Epical, yet I picture him coming on at the end - a prediction, or guestimate, really. Ya Gotta Wanna has never run at this distance.  As this seems to be a race where the horses are so nearly matched, a jockey like Prat could be a difference maker.

Majestic Eagle (5)(5-1) – Neil Drysdale’s regally (Medaglia d’Oro) bred black 3 year old was even closer than Epical in the Twilight. He has placed but never won at the distance. The horse has good consistent recent Beyers. And my adjusted estimate holds that he could lurk and come on to achieve a winning 1:46.4 at the distance. A great unknown here: the horse is scheduled to be ridden by Andrea Atzeni, and Italian jockey who has been among top ones in England. This will be his second mount for a 90-day stint at Santa Anita. You have to wonder if he will need to suss out the scene before he start to accomplish, or whether he will be lightning in a bottle. The horse is less likely than Ya Gotta Wanna to get involved up front.  A bet against this horse is a bet for Prat as the difference maker.

Among the others is Encumbered (7), a horse of a long layoff that ran with steadily diminishing results against the very best 2 year olds last year, and 3 year olds this year in between some extended time outs. Definite X-Factor Outlier material [Ed Note,: Encumbered scratched.] As well there is Eckersley (2) with a name easy for a RedSox fan to recall. Eckersley tends to be wide on the turns, seems to join the charge late in races, with a patented late losing move in 1 m races that makes one ask “isn’t it about time they tried 1 1/8 m. Another that could take money is Kazan (6) (one of two for Simon Callagan, and possibly ridden by Joel Rosario). #10 Maestro Dearte (10) has won twice here. The Also Eligibles include the potent Oscar Dominguez and well-regarded Cleopatra’s Strike.

Getting back to our introduction – John Bogle invented the index fund, which looked for gradual success across the board. That is probably at odds with most horse handicapping methods, as selecting along with the crowd in this instance will ultimately deplete your bankroll, in large part due to the vigorish the tracks and taxmen extract. [Bogle dealt with the accepted vigorish in the mutual funds business by forming unmanaged funds that drove management fees down to near zero.]
As usual our picks end up in the vicinity of the consensus. Maybe that is synonymous with conventional wisdom. There are outliers in the field that could take this one. There are expert details I could well miss (“The rails are out 20-feet, making things a little tricky for the deep closers.” Writes Frank Scatoni.)

The picks: 3-5-8-1

The bet: 3 to win. 3 over 5, 8.

What happened?
First call 8-4-3-5
Second call 8-4-9 [3 horse stopped]
The result: 8-10-6-5.
Final times: 23.5/47.4/1:11/1:46.3

Epical ran away with it. Sped to the early lead, opened up on the second turn, and on and on. Why else would Trainer James Cassidy’s rugged visage top this page? He’s often been a tough trainer for me to go with. Going forward, that’s changed!

The horse, who was something of a consensus pick, went off at the morning line price of 4-1, as You Gotta Wanna and others came down in odds.

You Gotta Wanna was lurking behind the leaders, with some promise – then was virtually stopped on the far turn, and the rider Prat seemed rather to choose not to persevere, perhaps. The chart said he was stopped twice, then weakened. Was the stop a black swan? Ya Gotta Wanna finished 7th.
Tyler Baze’s choice was right – and his ride was deft. He got a good jump on the others, and none really engaged Epical. The lead was not a hard one and he pulled away in the stretch. Maestro got second to make a rich ($300+) trifecta.

Race Chart
https://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=SA&CTY=USA&DATE=20181228&RN=6
James Cassidy Bio
https://www.americasbestracing.net/trainers/james-m-cassidy

My reasonable supposition was flummoxed – though Epical carrying the day had been among fairly reasonable possibilities. It was Baze’s good riding, and bad racing luck. The year has kind of been that way, brother. Til next time, may the horse be with you. - Randy Racetrack Romeo