Looking at some Breeders Cup statistics

The Breeders' Cup races present a unique handicapping challenge.

The quality of the combatants goes deep in each race.

You and most of the other punters end up overlooking a classy one that comes seemingly from nowhere.

Nowhere is often Europe, whose runners are mysteries with not much charting information to describe them.

There are a variety of races run, and a bettor can end up chasing too many races. There is more information  available than any other event, excepting perhaps the Kentucky Derby and the Arc d’ Driomphe, and the surfeit of data can freeze the brain cognition.

But, after 30-plus years, it does have a lot of statistics. And, as the Breeder’s Cup has been run at Churchill Downs eight times for a total of 73 races, there’s stats for that.

Statistics can be a useful guide, but they can also move you off the mark. But I think the folks at Express Bet have produced a nice PDF that has a lot of Breeder Cup stats, and they might be worth a look, with less than a week to go.

*Did you say payoffs could be temptingly rich? Eight of the horses that won BC races at CD have paid $75 or more each for a $2 bet. The average BC winner at CD has returned $26.14.

*Are their regularly key races that portend Breeder’s Cup success? The most successful BC springboards have been Belmont’s Frizette (Juvenile Fillies) and Keeneland’s Spinster (Distaf, F&M Sprint) tied with 11 wins, followed by the Arc de Triomphe (Turf, F&M Turf) with 10 wins.

*How do you deal with former winners? Last year, 9 former winners ran - all failed to win, and only one hit the board (taking 3rd).

*Are there paths or sequences pointing to success in the Classic? Three straight BC Classic winners were idle since racing during the Saratoga meet: American Pharoah (2015 Travers), Arrogate (2016 Travers)and Gun Runner (2017 Woodward). The last three Classics at Churchill Downs were won by NYRA-prepped horses: Drosselmeyer, Blame (Belmont) and Invasor (Saratoga).Of 8 Classic winners at Churchill, only Tiznow (2000) prepped in California. Dimmed ‘Hollywood’ stars include Zenyatta, Lava Man, Game on Dude,Silver Charm and Best Pal.The Jockey Club Gold Cup (7 wins) and Awesome Again (6 wins) are most productive Classic preps.

*Are there race shapes that mark the Classic? The last 6 Classic winners have been within 2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile.

What does the Turf Mile look like on historic paper? Favorites: Win 35%Average $2 Payofs  Win: $22.21Exacta: $300.62Trifecta: $7,840.06Superfecta: $34,283.37.Six of the last eight winners were age 5 or older. Four of the last six Mile winners competed in the Fall Keenland Meet. The Woodbine Mile procured four winners in the last 11 years.

All these statistics come with the caution that they can steer you astray, mis-anchor your objectivity and send you chasing after chimera.

The info available above would lead you to anticipate Jaywalk in the Juvenile Fillies and Blue Prize in the Distaff. Yoshida and Catholic Boy would deadheat win in the Classic, while West Coast, Accelerate and McKenzie would lag. Although Accelerate’s Awesome Again success would also put put him in the first spot for a triple dead heat.

How did that go?

Jaywalk won the Juvenile Fillies.
Blue Prize was fourth in the Distaff. But will come back and win it in 2019.
Catholic Boy was 13th, second from last in the Classic, a race in which Yoshida gained 4th and that Accelerate won as favorite and paid $7.40, $6 and $6.40.
As well, favorites won at an overall fantastic clip.

May the horse be with you!



===

Just for fun: Here are just some of the expressions Santa Anita race caller used to describe jockeys in the post parade. The rider “is astride”,  “accompanies”, “does the steering”, “is onboard”, “is aloft”, “guides”. Etc. Sometimes I think our reporter Racetrack Romeo overdoes the flowery prose - maybe he underdoes it.