Voodoo Song, The Forbidden Apple Stakes 2018

Heuristics save the day-o. 

Mathematician and teacher G. Polya was one of the 20th Century’s most noted voices for heuristic reasoning – described on the dust jacket of his paperback epic How To Solve It as “the study of the methods and rules of discovery and invention.”

Here we look at a very small portion of How To Solve It, and attempt to map what is to be learned there to the endeavor of horse playing. The brief portions we extract discuss the process of solution solving – reasoning – in the context of time-tested (or time worn) proverbs and adages. [p.233]. Note: This Doubleday Anchor is one of those with the indelible mark of designer and illustrator Edward Gorey (look above).(now look below)

There are many shrewd and some subtle remarks in Proverbs but obviously there is no scientific system free of inconsistencies and obscurities in them. It would be foolish to regard proverbs as an authoritative source of universally applicable wisdom but it would be a pity to disregard the graphic description of heuristic procedures provided by Proverbs.

Now follows excerpts that relate to Polya’s view of the steps in decisioning.

1.  Understand the problem: We must clearly see the end we have to attain. “Think on the end before you begin.” 

2.  See how the pieces are connected in order to plan for a solution. We must devise a plan that is appropriate to the action required - to try all the keys in the bunch.


3.  Carry out the plan. Nuanced here to be We should carry out our plan at the right moment. Look before you leap. But there is an on the other hand we should not hesitate too long. A timely warning points out the most common fallacy, The most common failure of a judgment is We soon believe what we desire.*

4.  Reflect – review and discuss the completed solution.  Looking back at a solution is important. Two proofs are better than one

And a bit more for good measure - The end suggests the means. Do not believe anything but Doubt only what is worth doubting.

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When I looked at the Equibase race form for the 9th race at Belmont Park on July 14, 2018 – the $150,000 Forbidden Apple Stakes on the Turf at 1 mile — I looked to apply at least one of Polya’s Proverbial aphorisms, or pithy observations containing a general truth. See 1, 2 and 4, 5 above but especially note 1 and 4. Think of the end. Two proofs are better than one.

Having “Think of the end before you begin” top of mind this day led me to hone the analysis. But before going there, I’d like to look at the overall analysis, or trying several of  the keys. The notes reflect the notion I have come by: to think that asking questions about what is uncertain is as important as reflecting on what is known from past performances. Still, looking at the past performances is your basic starting point - overall analysis according to form, class. distance and pace. As a Proverb by way of Polya would have it: as the wind blows you must set your sail.

The TimeForm anticipation for the pace is that Pocket Change (6), Blind Ambition (5) and Voodoo Song would be on the lead. I guesstimated a 22-22 and 3 first quarter, and a 1:33 and four final time, And a Beyer figure in the neighborhood of 100.

Disco Partner (2) looked good wining his last – tho the number (95) was just fair. Trainer Clemont and jockey Iraq Ortiz have been a potent combo of late, with some astonishing runs. The horse has had excellent speed, run in good class, and it thus a worthy favorite at 9-5 ML. Not an unfair price, but likely to fall, and not such a deal. There is Uncertainty in that his last out may have been chimerical.

Offering Plan (3) has won $572,000 – won his last, establishing good form and good numbers, is from a good barn, and 6-1 seems a good deal. What is Uncertain is : is he as good as the others? Is a NY red by Street Cry good here?

 Voodoo Song (4) has good speed, good class, is on the 4th outing in this cycle, and had a very fast last, so would appear to be in form. The Uncertainty is : is he back to his best? Sharp work, class drop, and high speed in last would say yes, he is back to his best.

Blind Ambition (5), a Todd Pletcher trainee listed at 8-1 comes by Tapit, is 3-1 at the distance, as was 2 L off Disco Partner in last. U=Will he fire? Since I cant answer yes, I will answer no.

Projected (7) has considerable class, coming from the Juddmonte farm, and being trained by Chad Brown. To me he seemed to have potential to come on late. The uncertainty he held was this: What does a 16-3-7-1 record say – Maybe that a place is a likliehood.

The first analysis led me to pick 2 over 3, 4, 7 exactas.

Then I whipped a little Polya on the problem, Punky. Think of the end. The admonishment told me to double ensure after the initial analysis the overall soundness of the solution proposed. Did we visualize the end fully? The possibilities in the end state?

The thought emerged to look at the speed figures for the horses at today’s distance. That immediately provided a different view on the proceedings – particularly on the potential weakness of Disco Partner, the odds-on favorite. Speed at 1 M leader was Projected with Equibase #105, with Voodoo Song at 103 and Disco Partner at 100.

The second analysis led me to add an additional pick: a 2, 4, 3, 7 trifecta box.

And they're off...and coming around the bend.. and the birds are taking to flight...




For the chart select here.

The running of the race had some aspects of billiards and disrupted one’s notion of true to form. Voodoo song ducked about at the start, and, to read the chart, upset some contenders’ chances. Neither Blind Ambition nor Pocket Change went to the lead. In Andy Serling’s view, they were both rated, tho other cappers saw the Billiard ball break of the start as partial issue there. Voodoo Song ran well given some good circumstances on the front, and Disco Partner lagged, from my point of view.

It was a heckofa day for jockey Manny Franco, who guided VOODOO SONG to the front-running victory, and won a total of three races on the card. What I might have expected for Irad came to fruitition for Franco.

“The plan was to let him do what he wanted to do. He went to the lead. I tried to slow him down a little bit and he did, it worked out,” Franco said.

Of course, Voodoo Song's early veering represented a dose of chaos in the proceedings. Sometime, uncertainty works for you.
                                                                                                            - Roman Meale.

The raw final time was much faster than I anticipated – 1:31.67. Voodoo Song’s winning Beyer was 102. The trifecta paid $68.73.

A historical note: The race is named after Forbidden Apple, one of the best turf horses at the turn of the century. Out of Pleasant Colony, running for Clement Cristophe, Forbidden Apple gained $1.68 million, completing his 31-race career with an 8-6-9 record that included multiple stakes wins including the Manhattan and the Kelso (2x).

*This noted here as it so mirrors one of Epitome's mottos: 
Men may construe things after their fashion, clean from the purpose of the things themselves. 

Hard to resist: Them Forbidden Apples.