Up the Ante bests Raging Bull in Manila Stakes 2018 on July 4th
A brain numbing heatwave was continuing as a raucously divided America came to celebrate the 4th of July in parades and sporting events. Among the latter include the Manila Stakes, held at a mile on the turf for 3-year-olds at old Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y. racing had been cancelled Saturday due to the heat, and hopefully the equine athletes are not too terribly taxed as temperatures subside to about 83 deg for this birthday commemeration.
The race is named after Manila, one of the greatest American turf runners of the late 20th century. In 1986 Manila won the United Nations Handicap, the Turf Classic Handicap, and the Breeders Cup Turf in which he bested Estrapade and Theatrical. The following year Manila repeated in the United Nations, and won the Arlington Million. If he didn’t win a race he was usually a competitive second.
But turning our attention to the matter at hand: The contestants today were: 1 -Sea Foam ; 2 Raging Bull (Fr) 3-Factor This; 4-Up The Ante; 5-Westerland (Gb); 6-Hangman.
Our choice on paper was 2-6, 2-5-6.
All the horses were young and interesting. For new trainer Bill Mott, Westerland was a classy foreign invader, but appearing in U.S. for first time, after a very long layoff - had every sense he could be prepping for Saratoga, but he had the appeal of uncertainty.
Factor This was a late blooming 2-year old last fall who ran with some Derby promise but more recently was trying the turf. He was clearly stepping up. Linda Rice's Hangman was ridden by a recently hot Robby Alvarado, showed potential to bring more speed to the game, but was also definitely stepping up, coming off a maiden win - an uncertain win candiate today, although the third pick on the morning line. Had no workouts since running on June 14 - well it's been hot!
The favorite seemed beatable but a late-speedful and valid one - that would be Raging Bull, which was 2 for 2 lifetime, with both at today's distance, for unrelenting turf master Chad Brown.
The pace looked to have Up the Ante on the lead, ridden by the recently hot Jose Castellano, and maybe facing some contention, but then somewhat likely to be surpassed by Raging Bull coming at the end.
Our class analysis put Raging Bull, and Westerland at the top, and probably mis-estimated Castellano's capabilities on Up the ante. That is because Up the Ante led easily and made moderate fractions and pulled off sprightfully to win at 5-1 (having drifted up from the morning line 3-1.
Result: 4-2-5-3.
The Chistophe Clement-trained Up the Ante didn’t seem to have the speed of such as Factor This and Raging Bull and Hangman (which held the best last-out Beyer figure), but pace made the race. Up the Ante got fractions of 24 and 48 and 4/5ths, with a final of 1:35.42. The Beyer assigned was 95, which is not particularly fathomable in this corner.
Raging Bull had difficulty coming from behind and was somewhat blocked on the turn, and, while in stern pursuit down the stretch, was no match for the winner, who triumphed by about 4 lengths. Hangman hanged somewhat. Westerland's effort was a professional one.
Like galaxy formation and weather, horse racing seems to have a chaotic nature that tends to dash precise predictions. Trackman was a hedgeful seer, saying ahead of the race that Up the Ante owned the early speed, needed his sharpest, but was a candidate to be involved throughout. Say 'Amen' somebody. - Racetrack Romeo.
The pace is right - Up the Ante
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