Catapult in Eddie Read at Delmar

Handicapping is not a test of ability to apply formula – it’s a test of creative intelligence.’

So writes Andrew Beyer, by far the most famed handicapper of this generation. Experience in handicapping continually drives home the point that there is some formula but there is more. Ten or so equines break from a gate at slightly different speeds, smell the air, and a controlled form of chaos ensues – striving, stumbling bumping -  that more often than not introduces a note or two of uncertainty – or a full chorus of chaos – to the proceedings. And it is when the unexpected comes in first, that the real money is to be made, the money that offsets or surpasses the other bets.

Looking at the Eddie Read Stakes set to run at 1 m on the turf at Delmar on July 23, 2018 – the first weekend of the meet — you encounter some familiar West Coast turf veterans, and you anticipate a good betting race. Many of these have graced these pages before: Next Shares (2), Flamboyant ( a personal fave but much raced runner I was rather glad to see end up a scratch), Bowies Hero (4), very recently successful Sharp Samurai (5), very accomplished Hunt (7), Multiplier (8), the enigmatic James Cassidy’s Prime Attraction (10) (with speed, and a pretty good track record at placing and showing at the distance), and ultra-accomplished ItsinthePost (winner of $1.2 m) (9) and a couple of others. A couple of standouts yes, but most of well heeled class. From the James Cassidy barn

A look at the speed numbers of the entries seems to suggest they all have speed, that all could hit the wire together or nearly, and, in fact, in the running, there is only a few lengths to separate most of the runners. I conjectured a 99 or 100 speed was possible, and that is what the winner got.

Turf pace, where is they sting? These events even at a mile typically see everybody racing for position and then hitting the wire enmasse - there is only a small bit of speed likely in the event. That being Hunt and Prime Attraction and Smart Samurai.

Form – Hunt was a surprising first back winner at the wire last out. Same for Sharp Samurai. ItsinthePost seemed to be lagging somewhat from his best form of the fall. And so on.

Distance- The horses here run at this distance, and shorter, and longer somewhat interchangeably. Bowie’s Hero, Sharp Samauri and ItinthePost stand out in this regard, tho as I see Post in the last year or so a bit longer distance seemed his forte. 

The pick was 7 over 4,5,9, 10

So the formula would say it’s a wide open race, albeit with some marking of strata, that pretty much aligned with the strata of the morning line. When we investigate the elements of uncertainty we would  quickly alight on a couple of the runners that havent been named yet.

True Valour (1) is in from Ireland, so there is nothing much to go on – in a way, he is getting a kind of weight break, but he offers the same gambler’s chance as many of these European invaders. Hard to say what he will do first time out. The first-time Euro is the essence of riskiness.

Catapult (6) also seems to be a looming question mark of uncertainty. Uncertainty - but favorable factors too.  If you were to dig. He’s recently come from east coast turf god Chad Brown’s tutelage west to join John Sherifs barn, which is red hot. He seems to have performed well in his first out of layoff for Sherifs, missing in a close one to Sharp Samurai in what could be a key race. You can see - I think - where this is going.

The results were 6-5-10-4.

The crowd proved of a mind that the OC$75K on June 17 at Santa Anita was a key race, as they made Sharp Samurai the favorite, but this time he was bested at the wire by Catapult who ran at 10-1 more or less. As Sherifs said after the race, there really shouldn’t logically have been such a gap in the two horses’ odds. Also, Catapult  gained the piloting of Drayden Van Dyke, who was in excellent form at this juncture in the DeMar meet. There was plenty of reason to “believe he could improve dramatically on the recent performance,” tough it was hard to discern a breakthrough in his morning works. [He and Drayen woul'd do the same on Aug 18 in the Del Mar Mile.]

Trust in Itsinthepost and Hunt proved misplaced today – they weren’t far off but they were in the rear. For Hunt it rather proves he is spotty. For Post it may show at his age he needs a bit more rest – of course it also confirms he has a hole in his soul when it comes to Delmar.. he has never won there. I could have sworn I saw his nostrils flair and his eyes bug as if in some early anger toward a hard charging Prime Attraction on the break – I’d have expected him to rate and make a later run. Maybe proving he could pass James Cassidy’s horse on the first turn satisfied his sporting instinct today.

Post mortem – had some of the horses but not the important combination. $5 for the right exacta would have returned $510; a $1 tri would pay $1400. -R.R.

It is never  enough to doubt everyting. One must know why one doubts. If it is by logic that one proves, it is by intuition that one invents. The real skill is in choosing between the different correct things one can write down so as to see the goal from a long way away, and without intuition the mathematician is like a writer who knows grammar but has no ideas. - Henri Poincare as told by Jeremy Gray.