Panalopy of irreducibly subjective judgments

Irish Freedom arrived at Churchill.

“Synthesis is an art that requires reconciling irreducibly subjective judgments.” Excerpt From Superforecasting, Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner

Got a newsletter via email in which exert handicapper Ellis Starr discussed his approach to handicapping the 2018 Preakness Stakes. It comes courtesy of Stats Race Lens, and points out the strong point of that tool but it also highlights some analytical steps that worked (in this case) and work without absolutely using the Stats Race Lens platform. The Preakness winner (Justify) was easy to pick, no doubt, but the place horse (Bravazo) was harder to pick, which Starr did, to make for a nice exacta.

"I approach handicapping the race as I do nearly every other race," he writes. Then, he continues:

First, I take a look at the contenders, particularly the likely betting favorite, and try to determine whether that favorite checks off most or all of the boxes as a legitimate favorite. A legitimate favorite is one that is logically the most probable horse in the race to win.

After that, I go looking for a horse, or horses, that may have a chance to succeed if the favorite fails to run to expectations, or one that can run better than its odds may suggest.

That involves looking for their highest speed numbers of contestants, the recent speed number of the favorite, and then at the horses recent trips and form. It could involve study of the trainer's success in similar circumstances.

In examining the race for those purposes, the first question in perusing past performances I ask myself is "Is there are race from a horse's past that, if repeated, would make him/her competitive?" And the second is "Can the horse repeat that effort in this situation?"

Let's apply this process to Race 6, a 1 1/8 m  Optional Claimer Allowance at Churchill Downs on June 2, 2018.

Yes he is a steady West Coast Runner with West Coast Beyer numbers, and has come to a new circuit and a new barn, but Favorite Irish Freedom looks suspect to me. As a favorite he does not indisputably check off the boxes as a legitimate favorite in terms of speed, class, form or pace. His Beyer in the last out ( a third at an OC at this level at Churchill to Lookin at Lee and Soneteer - 3 L off the winner at 1 1/16 m) was the same (87) Beyer as his last in March at Santa Anita where he was 5 lengths behind Prince Of Arabia. The Churchill outing  is seen by some wags as a key race.

I will go past some of the others worth considering - Cause Irish Freedom in fact will win, and pay some $5 for a $2-bet. But looking at their last outs Big Dollar Bill's numbers look hot. Krew Chief drew off and had best figure in last. (Describing carefully last outs seems to be a part of Mr. Starr's heuristic (technique he uses to discover things for himself.)) Big Dollar Bill seems in best shape demonstrably and has been second to some good ones, Krew Chief drew off and had best figure in last.

Here are the Beyer Numbers for top three for last races: 94 - Bill, 90-Krewe, 8-Irish.

Handicap forms for races can sometimes seem to surface a clear theme or themes. Trackside wags at Churchill saw this race as a tale of two themes, or maybe two more. They axed the questions 1-which could horse get the distance (none had won at the distance); or 2-succeed given lack of pace (there was no early speed to speak of); and 3-could back-class triumph  over 4-recency (or form).

What happened in Cherry Wine's last? T'was a troublingly poor run in  his first back for a horse that came in second in the Preakness two years ago.  Hollywood Handsome if he reverted to better form, could vie. The question was could he run back to his 96 Beyer of N.O. Handicap race of April and would that beat these?

I myself took the backclass bait. Hollywood Handsome appealed to me, and Cherry Wine seemed of possible value. This was a response to the Starr note: "Is there are race from a horse's past that, if repeated, would make him/her competitive?" And the second is "Can the horse repeat that effort in this situation?"

The selection: Hollywood Handsome over Irish Freedom, Big Dollar Bill and Cherry Wine.

What happened in this one? I already told you, the Favorite won. It was Irish Freedom over Big Dollar Bill. KREWE CHIEF set the pace early but eventually gave way,  but held on for 3rd.

HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME along with CHERRY WINE pressed the pace early but tired as they entered the stretch - distance was not their friend, pace was not their helper, speed was not lately or today their forte and their back class stayed back.

What happened was IRISH FREEDOM shifted into the four path in the far turn, rallied down the lane while five wide and drove past in the late stages. BIG DOLLAR BILL got second. Recency won  - there is a reason recent form gets weight in moving averages on Wall St,  I guess. - Romeo.

Me thinks: Tho necessary, the very act of trying to theoretically unseat what is likely to happen (the good favorite wins, puts you in an immediate bind. Today was not a showcase for Romeo's ability to synthesize irreducibly subjective judgments on the fundamental elements of form, speed, class or pace for the several runners that converged to take part in this event in Louisville.

Observe the race chart.