Lopez rides Axtell to course record at Bemont June 15
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| Paco Lopez rode Axtell to course record of 1:06.78 for 6F on the Inner Turf at Bemont June 15. |
A brilliant Friday it was on June 15 2018, as the steeds
went to post at venerable Belmont Park. The 7th at Belmont was no
grand stakes race but this $77,000 Allowance carried some promise. The inner
turf was crisp and green, and the distance of 6 F was familiar to most of the
runners.
A number of horses might be excluded from deep consideration - such as The Crocheron Kid (10-1), Sheckky Shebaz (15-1), Home run Maker (20-1) and Tiz He the One (12-1), though they were not without their boosters.
Horses with competitive speed figures that seemed very capable of being in the mix coming down the stretch were David Donk's Gummy Bear (if you tossed his last), who was ML favorite; Wesley Ward's Battle Station, the post-time favorite; and Keven Boniface's Axtell 15-1 (getting a life time high Beyer and showing "good energy" in his last) on the morning line. Hard to estimate was Hall of Famer Bill Mott's charge Pagliacci, running on just 8 days rest in his second since last July - and taking a step down in level of competition.
Bet: 9 over 8, 10 (Battle Station over Gummy Bear, Axtell.
Close but no cigar for this one.
http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=BEL&CTY=USA&DATE=20180615&RN=7
Final: 10-(7-9)-8
(Axtell-Pagliacci/Battle Station (DH), Gummy Bear)
TimeForm would have Battle Station in the lead early with Gummy Bear in competiton. Instead, it was Axtell covering Battle Station. The fractions were semi-torrid at 22.21 - 44:15, and it was Axtell moving forward of Battle Station coming down the stretch. Battle Station tried to hold on, stayed close and was joined by Pagliacci and Gummy Bear. A neck and a nose separated the four, with Axtell in the front, Battle Station and Pagliacci in a dead heat each gaining the second spot, and Gummy Bear in close attendance. The final time of 1:06.78 set a new inner turf course record!
So, in an 8 horse field, the predicted stretch run played
out, but with some surprising fractions from all and noted intrepidness on the
part of Axtell and Pagliacci. The 10-9 exacta paid about $30 and the 10-7
exacta paid $79.50 (for $1 bet). And a $33 something win payoff.
The winning jockey was Paco Lopez, who got the horse to rate
nicely in the early going, and moved on the leader at a good point, while also
conserving adequate energy to withstand the heated horde quick on Axtell heels.- Romeo O. Romeo
Predicastic NotE - Although the horses in this race are not exceptional as winners, there are some that have been clearly competive. Could look at the results as evidence of the "story" that author Phillip Bernstein's describes in epic tome on Risk.(above). Depicted in the close results is a tension between relying on patterns of the past (that would put Gummy Bear and Battle Station ascendant) and accepting the chance that uncertainty could hold sway (that would put Axtell and Pagiliacci in the front) -- separated by a nose and neck.
There was a shadow heuristic working here. That was to try to
1-ascertain which horses to toss - using the morning line odds, except where a notable trainer might be involved, and recent form or past form were notable - SUCH a horse's prospects were re-scanned.
2-ascertain which horses were likely given the number of horses, class, recency and distance to be in the hunt coming into the stretch.
3-double view these horses recent form.
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