Justify this ... and the Triple Crown

Before taking a page out of The Black Swan, a look at the 2017 Kentucky Derby, the most analyzed of races of the year. Then we will see what the Swan said.

THE KENTUCKY DERBY 2018

Let's look at the 2018 Kentucky Derby and prognostications that preceded it.  With 20 starters it was a laborious line up to run through. Analysis threw out horses like old french fries. Rain would pour in buckets. The pick here was Chad Brown's two-year old champion Good Magic on top, with Justify (defensively) showing up in a top three list that included Bold'or, who'd battled in some tough Califronian confrontations.

The consensus favorite in the Derby was undefeated Justify. And he did not disappoint.

Certainly has greatness, though the final time of 4:04 doesn’t really show it. Rain did not diminish, and may actually have helped, his effort. His speed was the best, and it carried -- he looked like he might get caught coming down the stretch, but he stayed in top gear and  won by 2 1/2  L.

Coming in, lack of experience was his only fault. That and the Curse of Apollo - which undefeated Magnum Moon shared.

Well now he has laid that one to rest - has shown that his talent is exceptional. As great as he was today, he had a great team in his corner, ones that at any step along the way could have mishandled Justify, even if ever so slightly. Jockey Mike Smith confirmed his enduring talent, as did Trainer Bob Bafferet who, in post race interview, clearly showed humility and some nervousness - maybe he had began to contemplate another Triple Crown run.

Myths Justify exposed included: The Curse of Apollo - Justify (like Magnum Moon) had been unraced at 2 - and no Derby winnder was unraced at 2 since Apollo, in 1882.

In the runnup to the event, very few of the top handicappers did not judge Justify a worthy favoite. Some took partial positions against him, using betting logic, on the chance he might have needed more racing experience, to hedge against him.

Among the handicappers who picked him unequivocally on top were Jeff Siegel and Andy Beyer - my respect for Siegel's judgment continues to grow. I am more familiar with Beyer, and I 've seen Beyer pick wrong so many times in the Derby that I can't loudly cheer his pick on this one. Dave Lifton picked the top two "for multirace wagers." Andy Serling came up with Good Magic, Justify ("defensively") and Bold-oro, which may have influenced Racetrack Romero's ultimate selection.

The chart shows the final order was Justify, Good Magic, Audible.  Followed by Instilled Regard and My Boy Jack. Bold D'oro packed it in at the 1mile pole in my view. Those literally pulling up the rear inlcuded the notables Magumn Moon and Mendlesohn the latter of which was thrashed at the starting scrum and checked at the first turn. Betting Forensics: Eacta's remain easier to hit than trifectas. Installed Regards's gutsy 4th made a Superfecta of a lush $19,000+. A Place on Good Magic paid better than a Win on Justify. -Takeaway: Take both sides of a likely fair exacta and enjoy the ride. -   Randy "Racetrack" Romero.


The Kentucky Derby




This race is known for  a  mix of some modest some substantial exotics. What were the payoffs?

7-JUSTIFY .......................... 7.80 6:00 4:40
6-GOOD MAGIC ..............  9.20 6.60
5-Audible .......................... 5.80

The $2 exacta paid $69.60. The 50-cent Trifecta paid $70.70

THE PREAKNESS 2018

Justify won next out.. With my beloved Good Magic close the whole way, but ending an also ran.
Not a surprise to lose first, but second? And third? Braveheart Good Magic after running first or second for well over a mile in the last jump lost 1st by a length and 2nd and 3rd by a neck and a neck.

THE BELMONT STAKES

Whether Justify had the foundation to win all his races from Feb to Jun was still a matter of conjecture as the Belmont Stakes beckoned. But he won in style to give us a Triple Crown Winner for the ages.

Black Swan is a book with a voice that has a weird chortle. That is courtesy of author Nasim Taleb. The author at times is like the brilliant movie professor who might turn out turn out to be mad - he goes on and on, and the audience is gradually clued in. He makes good points on the limits on the limits of prediction however. 

Black Swan points out Major Errors in Prediction

a-The error of confirmation - we look for what confirms our knowledge but not our ignorance. [In the Derby, we don’t expect horses with just 3 races, only one, a Stakes, and who haven't faced as many horses in their whole career as they will on this day to not feel the butterflies.  

b-the narrative fallacy - we fool ourselves with stories or anecdotes (when there really isn’t such a narrative) [The curse of Apollo makes for an easy to understand story. The 2 year old foundataion has been part of Derby Lore. Most top handicapper's dismissed the Curse outright. But now it is out the window for everyone. 

c-Emotions get in the way of our inference. The 2 year old champion coming back story. The battle tested Californian. These may have swayed us. The suddenly indomitable big horse - that story would have worked.