Hunt takes the Shoemaker Mile on Memorial Day 2018

At right, Hunt.

Bayes theorem focuses on the frequent occasions when we have sound intuitive judgments about the probability of some event and want to understand how to alter those judgments as actual events unfold. -Philip Bernstein, Against the Gods - The Remarkable Story of Risk

[Arcadia, Calif.] -- The G1 Shoemaker Mile on the turf at Santa Anita run on Memorial Day featured some of the top older sprint routers in training. Four horses are top-notch class performers, and three of those are in demonstrably valid form.

Let us start with second rung horses of interest here. Both at 6-1 on the morning line, Next Shares (8) ( who shows some momentum in rising Beyer figures) and BlacjackCat (9). Add to that duo Colonist (4) 15-1, who closed nicely to get second (behind What a View and ahead of Kenjistorm) in the G3 American in April here, but who has not yet proven he can win at this level.

Surpassing all in money earned and recent success is Heart to Heart (6) who had banked $1.9 million and this year won two Grade 1s - The Makers Mile and Gulfstream Park. A very worthy morning line favorite at 2-1, and very likely to drop in odds from that.  The mile distance suits the horse. He is an amazing 7 year old who once needed the early lead to win, but who has now added tactical speed, and the ability to rate behind leaders, to his repertories.

Om (1) comes in as a winner of $1m. Om is also likely to vie. Having run against some good ones (he actually beat American Pharaoh in a maiden race) he went sometime without a win, but he did succeed earlier this year in the G3 Thunder Rd, besting Bowies Hero and Next Share, who both surpassed him in the follow-up Kilroe Mile, and who both compete with him today. The morning line has him at 5-1. The mile distance suits the horse. He has taken to running near the lead, which worked in the Thunder Rd. He gains a new jock, Joe Talamo, who is having a good meet.

The afore mentioned Bowies Hero (2) comes in having earned over $600k, and having won two (the G1 Kilroe and G2 Mathis Bros Mile) out of his last 3. In the morning line he stands as second favorite at 5-2. The mile distance suits the horse. He can follow near at hand and improve down the stretch. And could benefit from a pace duel between Om and Heart to Heart.

Really equally classy is Hunt (Ire) (5) at 8-1. The horse's form is hard to ascertain, as he has never won at a mile, and as this is his first out since winning the Seabiscuit Hdcp at 1 1/16th mile at Delmar in late Nov. Tho he has a bullet workout, he hasn’t succeeded off the layoff before, nor is it a specialty of his trainer, Phil D'amato (who has a total of 3 horses in this race).

Let's go with 6 over 1, 2 and 8.



The result was 5-6-8-1.

Mine and the majority crowd's Fear of layoff converted into big ducats for the minority Hunt crowd. Hunt paying $21.60 to win, the exacta coming in at $38.80, and the tri a rich $127.

Here is how it went down. Om went to the lead this time. Heart to Heart tracked him and strode past on the far turn. Was moving ahead very well but then was collared by Hunt at the wire, with Next Shares grabbing a piece and Om holding on for fourth.

The winning conditioner Phil D'amato said post race that jockey Flavian Prat deserved credit for a ground saving run, a deft cut of the turn, and able angle out at the head of the stretch. D'amato could add that he'd train the horse to be hardy for that point. It seemed clear that Hunt was not in there necessarily to win, but that the trainer did expect he could get a piece. Asked about the distance, he suggested that the corwd and he himself had been wrong to think of Hunt as a long-distance router - that the idea to run at 1 ½ m in the Breeders events last year was 'trainer error.'

Gee - trainers make errors?

The general heuristic is: don’t bet a horse off a long layoff -- especially at an unfavorable distance -- without evidence that he or his trainer has succeeded in that situation before. In retrospect, Hunt's ability overcame that heuristic. The trainer as much as admitted that this was a freshener. And that racing luck - a fortuitous ride had a hand in the outcome.

The Shoemaker Mile is named for the top jockey of much of my youth, Bill Shoemaker.I learned today that he was but 2 ½ lb at birth in Texas - a Lone Star preemie. Never grew taller than 4'9'' or so, but what a horse rider. Tremendously popular, he toured the country in a farewell tour, and my wife and I were able to meet and greet him at Suffolk Downs in Boston. - Randy Romeo

Repeat them: Bayes theorem focuses on the frequent occasions when we have sound intuitive judgments about the probability of some event and want to understand how to alter those judgments as actual events unfold. -Philip Bernstein, Against the Gods - The Remarkable Story of Risk