It's Flamboyant in the San Francisco Mile at Golden Gate Fields

It had been a while for Flamboyant, but the 7-year-old passed
the $1-million mark in earnings with a victory
in the San Francisco Mile on Turf at Golden Gate Fields.

Spring was in bloom and the  turf was new at Golden Gate Fields in the run-up to the $200, 000 Grade 3 San Francisco Mile on the last day of March in 2018, and speed seemed to be the strong point for several runners.

Speed - Recent Beyer ratings of 96, 97 and 95 marked runners Editore (1), Frank Conversation (2) and Syntax (3), respectively. Frank Conversation, a horse that has yet to establish his best distance, was  the morning line favorite, but the afternoon crowd showed more favoritism for Editore, Syntax and, especially, Full of Luck (10), a Chilean steed making his first run in the U.S.

With the exception of the "known unknown" - this newbie Chilean - these swift horses seemed certifiably in good or fair Form. Fast horses with questions contesting the Mile were Many Roses (11), Bird is the Word (9) and French-bred Flamboyant (7). Bird was coming off a long layoff, Many Roses was off a dull-speed effort, and Flamboyant was off a very lackluster sixth against his nemesis In the Post in a stakes at Santa Anita.

Class - The aforementioned horses ( and including Mr. Rorary (12) ) ran against some very good ones in Southern California. But none has consistently run versus the top handicap horses in S. Cal. more than Flamboyant. Could this trip up to San Francisco be the remedy for this hard running, classy - he was the high weight in the Hollywood Turf Cup in November - horse who hadn’t won in 2 years? I think that set up clues you to the final result. But let's not jump ahead. Let's instead look some at the pace factor and some of its component sub-factors, Max.

Pace - Time Form US expected Many Roses to lead early, setting a fast pace, and followed by No More Talk (6) (with not particularly notable Beyers, and off a layoff) and Mr. Roary. Syntax and Flamboyant were not in the Time Form picture early, but were marked as deep closers.

I have pretty much thrown up my hands on these turf races, when it comes to pace, as early speed and early competition generally seem lacking, and all the horses seem near at the end. A horse like Flamboyant, who has been running well mostly but failing largely to win in longer races, might benefit from the 1-mile distance. The bettors today lay off Flamboyant, who went off at $11.60 odds. But Equibase showed him as the best average speed and best average distance.

We have to admit: Flamboyant has a place in our heart. Still, we have lost with him, and there is chance this can happen again. Does a recent success by Prince of Arabia, another hard running dissapointer embolden my bet? Who knows?! Flamboyant is a price on this day because he brings so much uncertainity with him - there is a potential reward in not being the crowd favorite.

The budget is short and the bet is: 7 over 1, 2, 3. With Win and place bets on 7 as well.

The Running for the SF Mile (requires Flash)

The result is 7-1-11-3. The fractions were 22 and 3; 47 and 3; 1:11 and 1 (!), with final time of 1:36.

The $1 exacta pays $50; the win pays $25; the place payoff for the winner is $9.20. Cheers!

It had been a while for Flamboyant, trained by Patty Gallagher, but the 7-year-old passed the $1-million mark in earnings with the victory in the San Francisco Mile on Turf.

Flamboyant was 10th early as Many Roses proved TimeForm prescient by setting the pace. Flamboyant was well positioned by his jockey. Said Julien Couton: The horse was "in the garden spot all the way." If you see head-ons you see him saving steps the whole time, and running true and on the rail, seemingly losing spots on the final turn, but staying close and, as all the other big butts drift wide, sneaking-snaking moving up and past.

Editore menaced nearby at the end, and it was tense, but Flamboyant pricked up when he heard the on-coming hooves, his jockey related. Still the margin was a nose, and the margin over third-place finisher Many Roses was a neck. Very little separated Roses for two others that vied closely.

The picture for place shows it:

Horse racing is not a game of inches - it's a game of noses and necks.


Trip handicapping is much discussed - it involves finding a horse that ran well but was inhibited by traffic or unfavorable pace per his style, or passing on a horse that excelled but had no traffic or pace challenge.Flamboyant benefited from his trip today to win narrowly. I will take it. - Racetrack Romero

Addenda
Dialectical Miscellany: Do you suppose the jocks and trainers read the Time Form pace projection, just like handicappers do? How do you calculate how they will point counter point react?

Rating the predictors: DRF's Dan Illman picks Frank Conversation and Matt Bernier picks Flamboyant.

The Chart for the SF Mile

Superforecaster mutterings:

Understanding that we come to the decision making process with some embedded bias - a point of view - is crucial to making good choices. Nate Silver at Gartner data conference per reporter Jack Vaughan, 2014.