Heart to Heart in Makers Mile

Heart to Heart led all the way, winning The Makers Mile by 1 3/4 L.

If your local weatherman tells you that there is a 40% chance of rain tomorrow one way to interpret that is that in 40% of his simulations a storm developed and in the other 60%, using Just slightly different initial parameters, it did not.

So writes Nate Silver. It somehow reminds me of handicapping, or at least the analysis that went into a bet on The Makers Mile - the Ninth Race at Keenland at 1 M on the Turf on Apr 13, 2018.That's because there was one pretty probable (but not absolutely probable) outcome possible, and many numerous less like likely (but certainly possible) outcomes that could be visualized.


The truth would be in the dynamic effect of many little initial parameters. So let's take a look.

If short of cosmically stellar, the line up in the race was pretty interesting - with U.S and Canadian turf milers like Ballagh Rocks (2), Forge(3), Tower of Texas(4), Frostmourne(5), Heart to Heart(6), Mr. Misunderstood(7), Next Shares(8), Om(9), and Hogy(10) on hand. Heart to Heart was logical favorite with a morning line of 2-1 that one would expect to come down,

Briefly, Ballagh Rocks was off a long layoff, Forge had run close to the best, Tower of Texas had potential to get a piece but had a long campaign, Frostmoure was fresh tho short on figs. Mr. Misunderstood nice but had a long campaign, Next Shares had run with the best, Om had a long campaign, Hogy is a tough horse but nine years old but - had a long campaign. Hadn't Heart to Heart been running at restful intervals but pretty straight through in what could also be called a long campaign? There wasn’t much other knock to lay on him given the race circumstances.

In one basic event scenario, the most likely event for me would be for Heart to Heart to beat Om, or vice versa. But there was a fair number of horses (let's call them The Pack) that could be very close and there was some chance that the battle between Om and Heart to Heart could negatively affect the prospects for both or either.

The chance that one or the other in The Pack could win at a price was inviting. The major criteria I chose in selecting among these was freshness and consistent steady running style. I am not sure what kind of a pace favors such - I know a blistering pace is said to favor a strong closer type. What kind of pace favors those among a stalking Pack? I looked for value with Frostmorne and Forge. But thought of it as a guess. Couldn’t pick all of them. And there didn’t seem much to separate some.

The bet was 5 over 3, 6 8 10. With a tri box of 3-5-6.

Wouldn’t you know but that is what the trackside announcer alit upon? And the TVG ML guy. And the crowd. And Frostmourne was bet way down.. from 10-1 to 7-2, not much more at post time than Heart to Heart, a noble and accomplished campaigner and just off his first Grade 1 victory.



Yes, Heart to Heart gamely led all the way and 'held sway' in the final stages, winning by 1 3/4 L. Ballagh Rocks flattened in a late drive, and led three other horses by 1/2  L. Forge, Om and Frostmore -- (sounds like a law firm) -- with a mere two noses and a head separating them. There might have been a tri in there for me if I hadn’t bailed on Om, had seen the class of Ballagh, or if Forge and Frostmorne had endeavored to finish a 1/2 length or a head or so better. Looking back, freshness did not seem a particular benefit. I did correctly bypass a few.

As I said, the truth would be found in the dynamic effect of many little initial parameters. If we were to read on in Sliver (remember the start of this post?) we'd find that the experience and acuity of the forecasters fills in blanks in picking a pattern out of the possible weather outcomes. (It takes local knowledge, such as, if the wind blows from this direction the morning fog on the bay will linger.) Elsewhere there we find that human forecasters add 30%+ to the ultimate success of the computer estimate. Life is about filling in (successfully) the blanks.

A Win bet saver on Heart to Heart helped, as he ended up going off at a rich 3-1. When you play with Probability in its gradations you play with a tough taskmaster.

And the weather in Lexington, Kentucky? The buds were busting, the air was sweet and strange. And the crowd? Over 28,000 were on hand to see Heart to Heart go over $1.9 M in earnings. -Romero Racetracko

 http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=KEE&CTY=USA&DATE=20180413&RN=9