Fire Away in the Danger's Hour Stakes, 2018
Fire Away is in the Red Hat and Black Silks running 6th at this point.
“Often - remarkably good probability estimates arise from a remarkably crude series of assumptions.” - Excerpt From Superforecasting Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner
Several accomplished horses used this for their first out for the new season - notably Mo Town and Projected. They had the highest Beyers, somewhat surpassing Conquest Pantera and Fire Away. The projection was for Macgone (who won the last two editions of this race), Hit it and Secretary at War to take the lead, and that is pretty much how it went, although Motown was right in the early mix.
Being off a layoff, Mo Town may have been especially keen to run. While the horse failed in last year's Derby preps and was a bit up and down and on and off, he'd seemed to come into his own at the end of last season. If we were to adjudge that Conquest Pantera's and Fire Away's speed numbers were recent, and that Projected* and Mo Town's were from last season ...
Conquest Pantera and Fire Away would have an edge today, and that was partially true. Late running Fire Away took the Danger's Hour, paying $6.10, while Conk Pantera trailed in 5th (tho the horse missed obtaining a better position by a slim margin.) Either Projected of Mo Town would seem to be capable of better on their next out. Conquest Pantera too could do well next out, although he has yet to find a natural distance.
How will Fire Away do next out? Only the Shadow knows. But it was nice to see Claude Shug McGaughey III win with familiar black and red colors of the Ogden Phipps' stable on this bright spring day. He has won quite a few races in his time, and he is pretty universally admired for doing right by the horse, whichever it may be. ( Did you say won many? He recently surpassed the 2,000-win mark. He has won nine Breeder Cup races, three Travers, three Jockey Club Gold Cups, and on and on.) Anytime he runs them, you have to look at his horses.
It might be self-serving to let drop that I contributed today's winnings to the Permanently Disabled Jockey Fund Telethon. But wow.. I got to talk to Jose Ortiz, who was manning a phone. I told him how much I appreciated his riding, how exciting it is particularly when he competes against his brother Irad, and wished him good luck this year. - Racetrack Caesar Romero.
http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=AQU&CTY=USA&DATE=20180408&RN=8
Related
See a consideration of The Artie Shiller Stakes for 2017
*Subtextual consideration (one not immideately obvious in data) : Projected trainer Chad Brown is known for easing horses in after layoff.
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