Synchrony clicks in FairGrounds Handicap

Synchrony clicks in FairGrounds Handicap

The FairGround in New Orleans sees a sunny day with temperatures in the '70s, on Feb 17. The denizens of The Place that Care Forgot go to the track for the Risen Star feature, but have interest in other stakes too, such as the FairGround Handicap which is experiencing its thirty-second renewal. This is a turf race at about 1 1/8 m.

The favorite in the field is Mr. Misunderstood (6) who, off a long series of turf wins, including the Woodchopper Dec 30, meets older company for first time - as high weight.  [Tho weights aint what they used to be in such events.] He meets a field that comprises a mix of veteran turfers that are evenly matched in terms of speed. They are on the main either hard working or injury prone.

I have some interest in Thatcher Street (1) - I went out with a girl who lived there.  I have watched this horse stalk and lurk and make a mark in early calls, but then fall short. Thatcher Street, like several among these, might be classified a Canadian horse. Off board in last. Is ridden by Brian Hernandez. Has good speed figures but hard to tell how it will play here. Can get early lead. Has run and run and run with some good ones, but not with a lot of wins, but has hit a lot of boards. Another Canadian runner is Galton (3). He seems fit, gets Javier Catellano, may stalk the pace, what little there is of it. Campaigners  capable of similar speed include Tiz a Slam (10), One Mean Man (4).

There is pretty clear record on the above. There are some mystery horses too. Michael Stidham's Synchrony (8) (and 9-2) was Derby-headed in 2016 before a third in the Lexington, but has been off much since then. Is training well, is ridden by Joe Bravo, but has been off since May. Betting on him has much of the character of gambling. Something similar could be said for Catcho en Die (12). This one has come up from Argentina for Bill Mott who is just getting going this year, is ridden by Jon Velasquez is fresh and new and he’s had some bullets. Not having run, like Synchrony, against Collected, this horse would be an ever bigger gamble.


We take this race to boil down to seven of the 10 horses. Let's look at the seven [with some of the unclear signals highlighted in red] in a rubric.

#-Horse-Form-Speed-Distance
1-Thatcher Street- may be in good form - 91 - has won at distance
3-Galton- Form seems ok - 91 - distance may be okay
4-One Mean Man-is in form-89-can handle distance
5-Granny's Kitten-is in form-86-can do distance
6-Mr. Misunderstood- good form-91-may handle distance
8- Synchrony-may be in form -may have highest speed (could range up to 99 -much the best- if ready) - may get distance
12-Catcho En Die-form is questionable-86-distance seems okay.

The boys at the Daily Racing Form are of a mind of 8-6-12-1

Let's go with 6, 3 over 1,4, 5 (and 3,6). 

Click to watch the race. 

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/fg/2018/2/17/8/fair-grounds-h-g3t

Look for the clashing causal forces at work in each problem - Tedlock Commandment 5

This gives us a mix that includes the most ones that most meet criteria and a couple of chances at ones that don’t.

These days these turf races are filled to the gills, there is never much early pace, all the horses are closely bunched at the end (to me, the evenness of speed figures among these betokens such), and racing luck seems to play a role. I don't know if that actually describes the Fair Ground Handicap.

Result 8-6-10

I do know that Synchrony won. The Irish Great Wide Open vied at the start on the long stretch. Thatcher St let him have the lead, then passed nicely and seemingly in a well timed way coming into the stretch. The fractions of 23.2/47.4 and 1:12.4 to this point were decent.  Then, with everyone seemingly coming on, Mister Misunderstood and Synchrony come charging on, until Synchrony, with the quintessence of timing on Bravo's part, passes his foe in stride, winning by two.

"Certainly we were hoping for an effort like this, and we got it, but this was a plan that started way back in the summer. ... We all got together and decided to give the horse some time and it paid off," Stidham said. "We're excited to have him back in this good form and hopefully it will carry throughout the year."

There were many factors at work here. I don’t think Synchrony's true class and readiness were that obvious - successful  bettors would have; and would have gained $11 for the win, and $30 for a $2 exacta (The Trifacta was $500). I didn’t make the jump to Synchrony, and cant say much in the favor of the others I selected. The rubric didn’t cover class-which I saw as a wash. Synchrony's form was good again a few weeks later in the graded Muniz Memorial at the same distance at the same track, where he stylishly bested Arklow and others.

That aside, looking at the rubric, which didn’t include the 3rd place finisher, you see a mix of clear signals and unclear signals. The safer bet goes with the clearer signals. Good judgement on the unclear signals seems important.

Romeo has in his mind the dance of machine learning here. AI/ML may figure out what is clearly likely regularly. It may not figure out what is less clear more regularly.  - Racetrack  Romeo

After today's setback our bankroll is down to $22,007l,090.52. That would be Confederate money, of course.

As an addenda - let's take a look at Matt Berneier and Dan Illman of the DRF looking at the runup to the race.

Scanning other analysts' views is one of the traits of a superforecaster, per Tedlock. It is tough though. I have seen correct analysis rendered asunder by last minute switches based on experts' views. You find yourself when forecasting or handicapping, creating a set of guides based on a belief set. But the actual belief set is something you have to continually test against reality. Or revisit. In this case, the DRF boys were more right than I was. I shouldnt blow up my heuristic, which I am trying to developer I imagine along the lines that they have pursued, but I should be ready to tune it.
of the topic space of Epitomime I saw a brief article that led me to addend this passage. "One Question Investors Should Ask Now and Then-The answer might reveal flaws in your thought processes." by Barry Ritholtz on Business Week.

How committed are you to a belief system? Answering that question has the potential to reveal flaws in our thought processes about many things, from politics to economics to cultural issues. Whether you are committed to one big idea, or are fascinated by a variety of things might also determine how successful you are as an investor.

He refers to Superforecasting in the story, cause review of tenets is one of Superforecasting's Commandments.  Rithotz has a kind of neat blog.