Avery Island gains G3 Withers victory at Aqueduct

Sharing this here as an example of a rubric for analyzing Derby Trail 3-y-olds. The analysis is the work of David Aragona, who is the NY TimeformUS analyst for DRF.

#3, BAL HARBOUR (6-1): Like Firenze Fire, [Look at 2 year-old campaign] he was a precocious 2-year-old that won early in his juvenile season racing over sprint distances. [Has he handled longer distances?] He handled the stretch-out to a mile late last year, but still must prove that he can be as effective going this longer distance around two turns.[What can be said about horse's pedigree?] I find it doubtful given his pedigree. First Samurai is a dubious stamina influence, and his female family is littered with sprint influences. His dam herself was a six-furlong specialist who won a minor stakes going that distance. His best half-sibling, Charleymillionaire, was also best at sprint distances, placing in a pair of stakes races at six furlongs. {Summary analysis] I admire this colt’s consistency, but I think he’s in the wrong spot this time. 

His pick was most everybody's favorite #4 Avery Island - which he would take at the morning line price of 8-5 or above. The horse won.. going off at 41 less than that. He and others correctly noted that Firenze Fire #1 was likely to have trouble with the distance - the horse, appearing smaller than the others, tried gamely. [FF beat both Good Magic and Enticed (who was flat in his 3 y o debut Sat.)] Bal Harbour was an up the track disappointment that folded at 3/4s mark. Aragona's take on the winner Avery Island was more about what he'd done in recent races than it was about the rubric:  He'd showed good form vs. moderate paces over speed-favoring tracks in his maiden win and in the Nashua. And last time out in the Remsen, rating off the pace before finishing a strong second to James Carroll's Catholic Boy.

Highlighting and annotating the rubric:
 1- Look at 2 year-old campaign
 2- Ask how horse has handled longer distances. 
 3- Consider the horse's pedigree - This would take far more time than I could devote. As a result I will have to take an expert's analysis on this.
4- Summary analysis