Sonneteer sings in Fifth Season at Oaklawn

Sonneteer training for 2017 Kentucky Derby. Source: Blood Horse

“Forecasting is all about estimating the likelihood of something happening - From Superforecasting

Let's take a look back at the FifthSeason Stakes. The FifthSeason listed stakes marked the opening of the meet at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas on Jan. 12. It is a $125,000 race, and is run at 1 1/16 mile, for older horses.

The contenders are fairly similar in class, having generally failed to find much success at the stakes level. At the top of the class are C. Trout's Shotgun Kowboy (8), which has won $996K, Far Right (1) which was second in the 2015 Ark Derby here, Brad Cox's Dazzling Gem (9), which finished third to Creator in the 2016 Arkansas Derby,   Keith Desormeaux's Sonneteer (10) which finished second to Classic Empire in the 2017 Arkansas Derby, and Steve Asmussen's Untrapped (11), which finished sixth in that same race. Sonneteer and Untrapped went on to unspectacular Kentucky Derby bids. Untrapped looms the best of the lot based on his win in the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby in September.

So the success or lack thereof is such that it is not that easy to dismiss other runners such as Wayne Catalono's Far Right on the far inside or Calumet Farm's Goats Town (6) for D Wayne Legendary Lukas in the middle.

Still, most of the horses have won at the distance at one time or another - that is excepting Chief Know It All (12), who has garnered a few stakes, StickyStatelyDude (5) - ridden by redoubtable Gary Stephens, who has big good bye, for now, to California - Royal Squeeze (7) and Entrapped and Sonneteer - the latter being a once promising horse, that took my money finishing up the track in the Derby in 2017, that is still eligible for non-winners of two).

In terms of form, all the horses ran last in late November or mid December. Dazzling Gem is running second time back after an extended time off. That he ran an 89 and lost by a head in last is worth noting.  Seven of the horses at least placed in their last, but they ran in everything from a $40k claimer - that is Royal Squeeze - to a G3 - that is Futile (2). The JAHawk Mrm at Remington is a race where three contestants met last : Dan the Go to Man (4) -  a pace threat, Dazzling Gem - in his first back - and Shotgun Kowboy.

There are some front runners here. That is 3, 4, 5, and 7. But they don’t look to me as tho they'd set fast fractions (let's guess at 24.5 and 1:12.4). Does it set up favorably for late runners 9, 10 and 11? We have said the late runners had a bit of a class edge.

Not to fault any of the riders but personally the only jock I can give special cred too is Gary Stevens but the distance is a question for StickstatelyDude, but he is a rested horse, has had some high Beyers speeds on occasion,and missed the 2016 Oklahoama Derby by half a length. He is running 2^nd out Greg Burchell after leaving Kiaran McLaughlin stable.

Untrapped and Dazzling Gem seem to have class and upside if their jocks (Santana and Bridgmohan, respectively) can measure the time to move. As Untrapped beat Battle of Midway (who went from what may have been a tuneup to win the Breeder's Mile) gives him an edge, but slight tis.

The pace is hard to judge. 3, 4, and 8 out front early? There could be two duels, early and late. Since ChiefKnow It All (12) ran close to Untrapped in last he draws some interest among some punters at a price. The upfront speed could make it finally Sonneteer's day.. but I have been wrong before and Jockey JC McMahon is an unknown to me.

A 100 Beyer seems possible but less could win. A final time between 1:43 and 1:42 perhaps.  1, 9 and 11 seem like the fast ones to me. And it's a long time between drinks for the 1.

Sonneteer is slow, so let's say no. Let him beat me. Same for Far Right. We will take a stand with Untrapped and Dazzling Gem - and join them with some gambling on Chief Know It All and Sticksstatelydude. Something will happen, but what is it's likelihood?

I am talking about: 5-9-11-12 with 11 the most likely winner - and 9 the second most likely.

Well what do you know? It was Sonneteer's day. His turn. He's reached maturity. I said ''let him beat me.'' And he did. Ouch. Slow but steady. And quite a payoff for backers.

Trainer Desormeaux did not even venture out to Oaklawn for the run. His directions to Jockey McMahon: "Let him break and be a horse." It worked! (McMahon seemed in the postrace interview a thoughtful gentleman - and he won the following race at 9-1 to boot). I think the final time for the son of Midnight Lute was 1:44 and change..slower than I anticipated, with a final Beyer of 95 - Sonneteer's all-time best by more than a couple of ticks.. and in a neighborhood he hadnt known... since Oakland Park back in the early Spring. Boing!

The results: 10-2-1-11-9.

Yup, Sonneteer. A 30-1 shot - the 10-2 exacta paid $561.  Don’t even ask about the tri with plodding Far Right (25-1). Untrapped and Dazzling Gem made an exacta (both were about 2-1) but in the wrong part of the sequence. Perhaps the distance was not suitable for Untrapped. Perhaps Dazzling Gem bounced. My toss-ins (Chief and StickstatelyDude) failed to fire and finished up the track.

The outside posts seemed a little rough on Untrapped and Chief Know It All, but not Soneeter (remember the trainer's simple directions?), but the race ran a bit weirdly, in the sense that Untrapped and Dazzling Gem made lurching mid race runs forward - to no avail.  Their runs were both disappointing. Their form was not as good as anticipated. Moreover, Untrapped's Oklahoma Derby seems suspect. So does that JAHawk Mrm. Trainer Desormeaux had confidence Sonneteer would surpass Untrapped, as he had in the Arkansas Derby - dammed if he didnt!

What seemed unlikely -- and the payoffs agree -- that just happened. - Racetrack Romeo.