Looking at the charts - Rollup of addendas

As an Feb 17 addenda - let's take a look at Matt Berneier and Dan Illman of the DRF looking at the runup to the race.

Scanning other analysts' views is one of the traits of a superforecaster, per Tedlock. It is tough though. I have seen correct analysis rendered asunder by last minute switches based on experts' views. You find yourself when forecasting or handicapping, creating a set of guides based on a belief set. But the actual belief set is something you have to continually test against reality. Or revisit. In this case, the DRF boys were more right than I was. I shouldnt blow up my heuristic, which I am trying to developer I imagine along the lines that they have pursued, but I should be ready to tune it.
of the topic space of Epitomime I saw a brief article that led me to addend this passage. "One Question Investors Should Ask Now and Then-The answer might reveal flaws in your thought processes." by Barry Ritholtz on Business Week.

How committed are you to a belief system? Answering that question has the potential to reveal flaws in our thought processes about many things, from politics to economics to cultural issues. Whether you are committed to one big idea, or are fascinated by a variety of things might also determine how successful you are as an investor.

He refers to Superforecasting in the story, cause review of tenets is one of Superforecasting's Commandments.  Rithotz has a kind of neat blog.