Gun Runner wins Pegasus World Cup - 2017

Gun Runner had plenty of gas in the tank as he triumphed in his last run at the Pegasus World Cup. 
Courtesy: Cowboy Rex Tillerson. 

Jan 27 sees the second running of the Pegasus World Cup - at $16 million at Gulfstream Park, the richest race in the world. It has if nothing else invigorated the part of the season between the Breeders and the time when the Derby chase starts in earnest. It gives one last opportunity to horses headed for the breeding shed, such as newly minted Horse of the Year GUN RUNNER (11) and STELLAR WIND (3).  (They wont necessarily shack up together, but it is a thought.)  

The race is led by a formation of achievers with pretty well verified class. Let's start with them.

WESTCOAST (2) - a 4-y-o Bob Baffert charge that is  2:2 at the distance. He's seen as somewhat comparable to Baffert's winner here last year, Arrogate, having won the Travers, young but still growing.  A steady runner. Liked by Andy Sterling, Richard Migliore, Dan Illman. The Three Wise Guys. Will Baffert send WEST COAST or his other entry, COLLECTED (4)?  Both will probably stalk, but with marked speed and closely. Will any of these horses look to block or stymie favorite Gun Runner, who has a 7-5-1-0 lifetime mark at this distance, and who crushed in the Breeders Cup? That's an interesting question too.

STELLAR WIND - a Mare of great accomplishment - not the speed of the boys, but not too far off in my accounting. Making a brief visit to the Chad Brown barn before retiring. A steady performer. Easy to add to exotics. Ran poorly in the Breeders - so form is in question - making the switch to Brown even more intriguing. Has not won at this distance. Could stalk lithely. A vote for Stellar Wind is a vote for Girl Power and a beautiful runner. 

SHARP AZTECA (4) - A male, but also a beauty, training tremendously, and off a sharp Cigar Mile. The race is expected to have plenty of contested speed, but Sharp A, unproven at this distance, is the one expected to blast to the front, to be taken on by Gun Runner, and ere long by West Coast and ... Collected, a top California runner. Has run quite close to Gun Runner,  who has drawn what is universally being called an unfortunate outside post - due to the track configuration, which starts very near the first turn.

“All models are wrong,” the statistician George Box observed, “but some are useful.” - From Superforecasting. 

Looking at last year's break from the outside I dont see trouble for Gun Runner with the first turn. He will make it easily. He hasnt run since the Breeders (nor has West Coast) and he should have more gas in the tank than Sharp Azteca or Collected, over the long haul, which have both run since that event. Is Coast as good at this point as Arrogate was a year ago? A fair bet would be 'no.'

Among horses with less confirmed class, that could benefit from fast pace,  Seeking the Soul (11) draws my interest. This is a step into the top ranks, granted. And,  I wouldnt want to be too swayed by his win in the Clark, though it wasnt a bad bunch he bested that day. But he is 2 for 5 at the distance, has been in good form, and there is nothing wrong with his speed.

Now let's note the horses we will basically overlook - admitting that there is merit among them: War Story (very often is in the mix), Fear the Cowboy ( Harlan Holiday winner could be coming into form), Gunnevera (could thrive off the pace), Singing Bullet (Dale Romans can't be ignored), Toast of New York (is rested after three years off), Giant Expectations (experimenting at a new distance), and others.

The operative model here is that the conflict of speed will wear on the early pace setters, except for Gun Runner, who will prove much the best. But we will also cover for the other instance - that all pace setters will falter; making what one would call a small play against the class, and trying out a long shot. And we will see if the model is wrong, useful or what.

Let's go with  10 over 2, 5 - selecting the likeliest winner and two of 3 likely top class competitors) and 11 over 3,7, 10  and 10 over 11 (all of which is less likely, but more potentially lucrative- famous last words).


Let's start with the end point. Gun Runner was much the best - went out as champion. Had no trouble with the far post or the break. He tracked a leading Collected, as Sharp Azteca did not seem to fire. Collected was finished at the far turn - and it became a two-horse race, with Gun Runner never threatened by West Coast, and these two far, far ahead of the rest of the field.

The result: 10-2-6-7.

Not much to be said about Seeking the Soul (was outclassed, me thought, tho trackman nicely adjudged he was forced four-out at head of stretch, ran evenly while not gaining any particular ground), or Stellar Wind (who was rather buffeted by the boys). Locals Gunnevera got up for a spot, as did Fear the Cowboy.

An interview before the race with Sharp Azteca's owner was a bit odd. He let that the horse had run progressively faster fractions in training and perhaps didnt need the front and could hold the four spot into the first turn (and thus force Gun Runner out wider)  and taking on Irad Ortiz (known as a come from behind specialist) as jockey was part of all this - if that was the strategy, they might want to file it back under 'it dont work.'

A great race to anticipate, and watch. If nothing else, the construction of the model stopped time for 1:47 2/5 sec. A $17 return on $12 bet helps defray the horse player's cost of ginger ale and the Daily Racing Form. 

(While we will continue to follow the action, with some slight miscellaneous exceptions, this blog will be taking a sojourn - grabbing the baton again later in the season. As our morning- and evening-line favorite Harvey Pack would say: "May the horse be with you.")-Racetrack Romeo Capulette

Chart: http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=GP&CTY=USA&DATE=20180127&RN=12