Conquest Tsunami emergent from the ashes - Race 9 - Santa Anita, Jan 20 2018 - $80k OC
"Superforecasters constantly look for other views they can synthesize into their own. There are many ways to obtain new perspecives. What are experts saying? You can generate different perspectives..." Tedlock, Superforecasters.
This is one of those vaunted sprints on the Santa Anita downhill turf course. On this particular day, with the sun beginning to dive into the Pacific, golden through the starting gate as the horses and riders seriously gather.
A stakes preliminary to this optional claimer on that same course rightly has gained most of the national handicapper attention today. Reading David Lifton reminded me of how unique that course is, and that it should be among handicapper's considerations anytime the race goes on this particular course, which is oddly configured.
It starts down a hill, and requires runners to take a fairly sharp right hand turn before going into the first left hand turn. The result is such that the outside horse is initially the inside horse, and it guarantees a different bit of shuffling than is usual. Things get mixed up a bit more later on, as runners traverse a patch of dirt in the middle of the turf - as footing changes, again, there is a bit of shuffling in positions.
I am looking at three horses that would seem to have achieved on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita. Anatolian Heat (1), one of two for Peter Miller, and Tribal Fighter (5) for Richard Balthus, clearly fit this bill - a fact not likely to be obscured from the betting public* - and Eric the Trojan (7) has come close. The distance is right for 1 and 5, it seems - tho I could be missing something here.
There is more than the downhill to factor, of course. We have a new horse from overseas - that is, Ronald R. Just joining the Simon Callaghan barn but offering very little in the way of data to go on. There is Conquest Tsunami, who had run with notable speedsters (including Canadian Horse of the Year Pink Lloyd) in Canada, and is now joining the Peter Miller barn. How Conquest Tsunami will run today is a guess. I will play him beneath. Conquest Tsunami could run a set up with Anatolian Heat.
The race is interesting as the trainer roster includes some everyday good level California trainers - and jocks. Peter Miller with Anatolian Heat and Conquest Tsunami. James Cassidy with Harbour Master. Doug O'Neill (whose barn seems to be emerging from a funks) with Semper Fortis, and Balthus, with Tribal Fighter, notably.
The class story in the race is mostly about horses that run together in these parts regularly and similarly. Semper Fortis (3) and Horse Greedy are notable exceptions. They both have run against exceptional stakes company - and both had to take long spell off, from which they are just returning. If long layoffs are a part of the analysis, you must think about passing on these.
Semper Fortis has been off for almost a year, has gained $436,000 in earnings. Has finished closed to Accelerator and Danzig Candy.
Getting back to the trainer litany: there’s James Cassidy, who looks like Victor McLaughlin and never surprises you when he wins at a long price. His Harbour Master (BR) (4) is ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who is still riding exceptionally well. The horse may be stepping up a hair to this particular optional claiming stakes level.
Getting back to the jockey riffing: There is Cory Nakatani, doing well, choosing probably as loyalty ot regular trainer, Tribal Fighter over Anatolian Heat which he piloted in its last out.
We expect some pace led by Conquest Tsunami, and Anatolian Heat and Horse Greedy. Don’t see exceptionally far back come-from-behinders - good idea in such a short sprint! The opening quarter could be between 21 and 22 and where it lands on that spectrum could decide the outcome or decide the possibilities for the come from behind and stalkers in the group.
High speed horse would be Eric the Trojan, that is speed overall, not early speed, who is a bit of a journeyman. Eric is just a little hard to go with, and has not won at this track or distance.
So we’re going here with 5 over 1, 4 and 6.
That is with 5/1 the most likely outcome. But also going with 5/4 and 5/6, because we have seen 6 run well with some good Canadians and because James Cassidy is such a character, and Kent has been riding well and the horse been steadily improving (and in his last race against a very tough field his saddle slipped and he was eased...)
Any day can be the day a horse wins its first on this course. But in the interest of falling probability, the handicapper follows the guide that the likeliest horses should have won or ran well on this surface. In Lifton's reminder he refers to Robert Quinn, one of the great teachers of handicapping principles, who devoted a chapter to this topic and this very course configuration. Here I will lightly leaven my forecast with this knowledge, gained from reading a perspective on another race. I don’t call myself ruled by the expert judge, instead I'd say I was guided by the useful heuristic.
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| Conquest Tsunami - survivor of San Luis Rey tragic fire. Source BloodHorse. |
The results: 6-5-7-1-4.
Let me repeat: There is more than the downhill to factor, of course. A useful heuristic can nip you in the butt. Conquest Tsunami won by a good margin (4 1/4 lengths). Was true speed. We saw his potential as we had him underneath.. should a had him on top too! Touching story, cause the horse is out of the tragic recent San Luis Rey fires. After the race, the horse said that "rumors of my demise have proved exaggerated" ...)
The California horses, the most logical exacta happened, except Eric the Trojan snuck in there. [But honestly, Eric the Trojan made a great run - and he stepped down, ran as well on the downhill, and won Apr 26.]It could woulda been Tribal Fighter uber alle! - But for the Canadian horse with Baez in the pink silks riding. Closely together they are cropped in photo finish for place and show below.
Track caller and others held that Conquest Tsunami got a very easy lead - someone shoulda took him on. At 22 1/5 it was at the high end of the spectrum we anticipated. No matter, Conquest Tsunami had both speed and class and first time on the the odd track was no problem. Obtained a 99 Beyer figure. One more heuristic: dont underestimate top class Canadians coming down this way - and dont overvalue the speed numbers that Calif. horses attain. Maybe it is a beautiful grotto the deserves consideration - it's not all she wrote.
- Racetrack Romeo
Look at the chart http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=SA&CTY=USA&DATE=20180120&RN=9
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*I have done a little searching and found some machine learning experiments using horse race handicapping as the corpus. (I've heard tell that Charles Babbage and Ada Lovelace had turned their considerations in this direction when they were working on their differential . Also note early lineage of Totalizer.) As a domainist -- not a domain expert, mind you -- Racetrack Romeo was unsurprised to find out they could pick out the most likely winner - and lose money over the long haul. This is one of the essentials every horse player learns early. The conundrum comes in the quest to be likely but not too likely, to beat the wisdom of the crowd effect.
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