Fear the Cowboy takes Harlan Holiday G3 Stakes

Fear the Cowboy takes the 2017 G3 Harlan Holiday Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
Photo Courtesy of Gulfstream Park. 

[December 16] - Some cloud but mostly sun and in the 70s - what you would expect as December deepens, and the racing picks up in a warmer clime. It is Gulfstream Park at Hallandale Beach near Miami, Florida and we were awaiting the running of the 1 1/16th mile $100,000 Harlan Holiday G3 stakes.

Let’s look at some of the horses we will come to favor and some that will have a role in the outcome in more or less post-position order.

Richard the Great (1) is something of a local. Has 4 wins out 12 tries lifetime. Ridden by Paco Lopez, you could say he is stepping up as this winner of $141K meets a group that includes Mr. Jordan (lifetime earnings of $600k), Destin ($943k) AND Page McKenny ($1.79 m).

Mr. Jordan (2) with seven races in 2017 is somewhat well-traveled this year - with some success, having won two. He is a striking white horse that runs best on the lead. Had a 100 Beyer in last, but is not quite dependable, and is not likely to duplicate that last number.

Destin (3) is famous mainly for running well in last year‘s Belmont Stakes, losing that by a nose to Creator. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velasquez, he is likely in good shape. He won in November at Delmar in the Marathon Stakes at 1 3/4 mile. Will today be too short distance? He did at win at today's distance in his younger days, so why overthink it? He will go off as favorite at 7-5, down from morning line favorite odds of 5-2. Seems capable of a 95 Beyer today.

“Unpredictability and predictability coexist uneasily in the intricately interlocking systems that make up our bodies, our societies, and the cosmos.” - Excerpt From Superforecasting Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner

Conquest Big E (4) is stepping up seems capable of some early speed. The pace I expect in the race 24-47 3/5th - 1:11. I don't see him in the lead at the end, although he is capable of the ultimate Beyer I expect, which is 95 that, I think, converts into 1:44 in actual minutes and seconds.

Page McKinney (5) is the dependable hard hitter but much attention has been placed on his antics in his last race, the Riachard W Small at Laurel, where he finished fifth. At seven, you are most carefully watched for signs of age. But one no-rally (87) clunker seems thin grounds to pass. He is 52-20 in his career, and 8-4 on year.

Fear the Cowboy (7) out of Giant Causeway, has the mark of a winner. Moreover, he seems on the upswing, and could better the 92 Beyer he obtained Nov 22 at Penn in the Swataral, where he finished third. He is 9-3-3-1 on the year, with $500 k gained in his life. The horse has done well at this track - his victories here include the Skip Away [Ed Note: Named for an old favorite gray of yore] earlier this year.  Portentous it is that Javier Castellano is in the irons.

Flatlined (8) is a horse I have seen win - in the Fort Lauderdale last January. Is capable of surging, and usually must as he runs from far back. Really best described as a turf horse, and some wonder if this is just a tightener, or experiment, before he returns to the turf. He did not do much in the Shadwell Turf Mile (won by Suedois at Keenland on Oct 7) But has run against some very good ones, and has a bulleted work out. His trainer, Charles Dickey, has showed some considerable success with horses going from turf to dirt.

The choice here is 3,7 over 2, 5, 7 (and 3,7). That's a $1 exacta wheel for $8 tot. Will try a 10-cent superfecta with a few of these too.




Mr Jordan ran forwardly with Conquest Big E. Their duel seemed to lead to a pace faster than the one I had anticipated. 23.37 - 46.20 - 1:10 - 1:42.23. Beyer: 105.

It helped Fear the Cowboy but not Flatline or Destin. Page McKenny stalked at about 6 and then 8 lengths off lead. And then didn’t really rally - perhaps showing signs of a long campaign, if not career. Flatline was flat. This experiment on the dirt confirmed his proclivity for the turf.

Today was Fear the Cowboy day. Mr. Jordan kept at it but could not maintain against the charge of Fear the Cowboy. Castellano confidently rode Fear the Cowboy, who was 6th  or so early, and at the ¾ mark started running in great long strides. Castellano said later he rode in anticipation that lots of speed up front would determine the race. Fear was wide but with a head of steam. Ran right past Destin, who seemed a bit taken aback by the experience - perhaps the two-back Marathon took something out of him.

Richard the Great pointedly rated, eschewing the early pace duel, and came back for a piece. I cashed a ticket - but wish I had Richard the Great in my tri. In forecasting some things are predictable and some not. As Tedlock writes, the predictable and unpredictable can be interlocked. In this case, I'd say that Richard the Great's reaction to the race shape was hard for me to predict. Paco Lopez rode him well enough to gain third (which was pretty good for a $9.80 shot).

Race chart
http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=GP&CTY=USA&DATE=20171216&RN=9