Off Limits in the Matriarch Stakes at Delmar - Nov 26 2017

"In some environments, there's a lot of irreducible uncertainty." - Tedlock, parahprased, on Knowledge at Wharton video

Off Limits ridden out by Joel Rosario after win in the Matriarch Stakes at Delmar. Source: Blood Horse.

[November 26] - It was sunny and California and a bit cool as the runners prepared for the G1 Matriarch, one of a few top stakes on the last day of this meet at Delmar by the sea. At a mile on the turf, the event attracted two runners from Chad Brown's New York barn, some West Coast would be stars and some West Coast proven winners, including one fresh from a strong effort on Breeders' Cup day at this same track. In the past, the race has been won by such as Better Lucky for Eddie Castro and Thomas Albertrani, Miss Temple City for Graham Motion and Edgar Prado and  Flawlessly for Chris McCarron and Charley Whittingham (three times). Famed trainer Bobby Frankel's horses won eight times. The Matriarch is for fillies and mares.

Let's look at some of the more interesting contenders. Lull (2) had good class, could make the lead and what I estimated conservatively a chance at a 94 Beyer at this distance. Cambodia (7) had run with best but had clearly been aimed at the Breeders Cup earlier in the month. I guessed at an 87 Beyer. The horse would be ridden by Drayden Van Drake, who, with all due respect, seemed to be firing on less than six cylinders of late. Cambodia was the favorite.

Another contender was Off Limits (8) was Chad Brown's prime entry. Solid class of course. Irish bred. By Mastercraftsman. A 5-year-old. Dan Illman's pick, despite anticipated short odds. The horse had most recently obtained a whopping 105, far better than the other runners. Ridden by Joel Rosario. Hard to go against - seemed somewhat a certainty.

Rubilinda (9), Brown's alternate entry. Fresh, meeting older, looked nice in the post parade. Ridden by Jose Ortiz. Irish-bred Hawksmoor (10) had been running with the very best horses, needed to control pace, was coming in in good form. Capable of a 97 Beyer. I've seen this horse run very well. Ridden by LePearoux. Kitten's Roar (12) has beat some of the locals with a 94 in the Goldikonva last out. A concern was that she might have had a long season. Anticipated first call: 4-10-2. Anticipated first fraction: 22 and 1/5rd.

The choice here would be 2, 8 over 2, 8, 9, 10

Let' go to the film. And a well behaved field, per the immortal Trevor Denman



The results were 8-10-5-7

Hawksmore stalked outside and then bested an overmatched 38-1 shot who had set a first quarter of 23 and 2/5th. Hawksmore ran good fractions but could not forestall the blistering momentum of the suddenly certain winner, but the latter's margin of victory was merely a length.

The winner? It was Off Limits who surged from last to first under a "picture-perfect" ground-saving ride by Rosario (per the Blood Horse). The horse got a 101 Beyer, came on "like an express train" (per Trevor Denman), and looked like she could have gone further. I'd guess Hawksmore got 99 or 100. The top two finishers had the top projected Beyers (105 and 97). If it were always so straightforward, it wouldn't be the sporting life.

Local Insta Erma (liked by the DRF's Ellman) got the third spot in promising fashion. Cambodia steadied, stalked, three wide and persevered but settled for fourth. Lull was not stunningly sharp in the early going. May have been buffeted. Did not seem to be able to make an early lead, which seemed his only hope. Tho well handled by trainer, seemed tired to me. Rubilinda appeared winded as she for the first nonce competed with older horses. The asst. trainer said the horse did not like the track. Kitten's Roar did not fire. She too looked to have had a long season.

Let's link to the chart http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=DMR&CTY=USA&DATE=20171126&RN=7

They call Chad Brown the God of the Turf in New York, and the Matriarch is one of the few big turf stakes he hadn't yet bagged. This Bobby Frankel protege has really turned into a remarkable trainer. He also seems like a sincerely dedicated individual, at least as I hear him in the podcast with Andy Serling that follows below. He had Off Limits ready, and a couple of races later on the card, he snatched another, as Analyze It triumphed in the Cecil B. DeMille for 2-year-olds.

As Tedlock has said, there is a lot of irreducible uncertainty in environments. Twelve horses thundering around 1 mile is one such environment. Only in retrospect does certainty confirm itself.